NHL
San Jose Sharks
8-11-2
Utah Mammoth
10-8-1
Win Probability
Utah Mammoth hosts San Jose Sharks in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side. Clayton Keller, Utah's offensive catalyst, projects to 78% for a point, while San Jose counter with Macklin Celebrini at 67%. The game turns on shot volume: Keller's 3.4 projected shots and Nick Schmaltz's 2.9 give Utah's offence a concrete advantage, but Celebrini's 3.3 and Will Smith's 2.3 leave San Jose a path if their visitors can generate consistent chances. In games this heavily favoured, the favoured side won 61% of 5,660 graded matchups. San Jose's upset bid depends on out-working Utah in a game the numbers expect to be close in scoring.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UTA | EV | SAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -229 | -6.0% | +181 | +4.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -214 | -5.0% | +177 | +3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -125 | -1.7% | -110 | -5.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth 61% to beat San Jose Sharks (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Mammoth a 61% chance of beating San Jose Sharks, against 39% for San Jose Sharks. Utah Mammoth are at home and favoured on these numbers.
San Jose Sharks (8-11 so far) project to finish 34.5–40.6 and make the playoffs in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah Mammoth (10-8 so far) project to finish 43.6–32.8 and make the playoffs in 56% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 34.5–40.6 | <1% | 10% |
| Utah Mammoth | 43.6–32.8 | 4% | 56% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How San Jose Sharks and Utah Mammoth come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Jose Sharks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Utah Mammoth have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
San Jose Sharks are 277-226 as favourite and 229-406 as underdog, and 237-341 on the road (41% of 578 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SAN | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 277-226 | — |
| As underdog | 229-406 | — |
| At home | 276-301 | — |
| On the road | 237-341 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →