Vancouver Canucks
3-16-1
Vegas Golden Knights
13-5-2
Win Probability
The Vegas Golden Knights host a Vancouver Canucks team that has struggled badly this season, and AccuScore's simulation decisively favours the home side. Jack Eichel, who projects to average 3.0 shots, carries a 73% chance of recording at least one point, while Mitch Marner of Vegas shows a 74% chance of the same; both are well-positioned to produce. For Vancouver to pull off the upset, Elias Pettersson would need to lead a scoring surge — he sits at 53% to register a point — and the Canucks would need to limit Vegas's volume. In games where the model has favoured one side this decisively, that side won 71% of the time across 1,334 past matchups.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | VGK | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -404 | -5.3% | +331 | +11.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -352 | -4.0% | +302 | +7.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -115 | -2.6% | -120 | -4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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Vancouver Canucks (3-16 so far) project to finish 26.5–49.7 and make the playoffs in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Vegas Golden Knights (13-5 so far) project to finish 49.5–26.0 and make the playoffs in 95% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 26.5–49.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 49.5–26.0 | 49% | 95% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights 72% to beat Vancouver Canucks (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vegas Golden Knights a 72% chance of beating Vancouver Canucks, against 28% for Vancouver Canucks. Vegas Golden Knights are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Vancouver Canucks and Vegas Golden Knights come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vancouver Canucks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Vegas Golden Knights have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 36 times since 2017: Vancouver Canucks 10, Vegas Golden Knights 26. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2026, finished Vegas Golden Knights 3, Vancouver Canucks 2.
Vancouver Canucks are 224-185 as favourite and 284-403 as underdog, and 253-312 on the road (45% of 565 games, 2011–2026).
Vegas Golden Knights are 374-230 as favourite and 109-119 as underdog, and 268-159 at home (63% of 427 games, 2017–2026).
| Record | VAN | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 224-185 | 374-230 |
| As underdog | 284-403 | 109-119 |
| At home | 271-294 | 268-159 |
| On the road | 253-312 | 223-198 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →