How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 4,478 played Serie A games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to May.
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Drawn | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 382 | 54.8% | 38.7% | 26.4% | 41.9% |
| 2024-25 | 380 | 54.1% | 39.7% | 28.4% | 42.6% |
| 2023-24 | 380 | 56.6% | 41.8% | 29.5% | 42.9% |
| 2022-23 | 370 | 52.3% | 42.2% | 27.0% | 38.4% |
| 2021-22 | 379 | 54.2% | 39.1% | 25.9% | 42.2% |
| 2020-21 | 419 | 57.1% | 40.8% | 25.5% | 45.3% |
| 2019-20 | 270 | 56.5% | 39.6% | 22.2% | 52.2% |
| 2018-19 | 381 | 55.1% | 43.6% | 28.3% | 47.6% |
Across 4,428 priced Serie A games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 55.4% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Home teams won 42.0% of 4,478 games in the archive, with 26.2% drawn.
Of 4,447 games with a posted total, 45.1% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.
| 2017-18 | 378 | 59.9% | 43.1% | 21.7% | 45.2% |
| 2016-17 | 379 | 61.3% | 48.3% | 21.1% | 50.4% |
| 2015-16 | 380 | 54.6% | 46.1% | 25.0% | 45.1% |
| 2014-15 | 380 | 47.7% | 40.0% | 31.6% | 48.8% |