How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 4,578 played Serie A games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to May. The favourite is the side with the shorter moneyline.
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Drawn | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 100 | 63.6% | 47.0% | 16.0% | 52.0% |
| 2025-26 | 382 | 54.8% | 38.7% | 26.4% | 41.9% |
| 2024-25 | 380 | 54.1% | 39.7% | 28.4% | 42.6% |
| 2023-24 | 380 | 56.6% | 41.8% | 29.5% | 42.9% |
| 2022-23 | 370 | 52.3% | 42.2% | 27.0% | 38.4% |
| 2021-22 | 379 | 54.2% | 39.1% | 25.9% | 42.2% |
| 2020-21 | 419 | 57.1% | 40.8% | 25.5% | 45.3% |
| 2019-20 | 270 | 56.5% | 39.6% | 22.2% | 52.2% |
Across 4,527 priced Serie A games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 55.5% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Home teams won 42.1% of 4,578 games in the archive, with 25.9% drawn.
Of 4,547 games with a posted total, 45.2% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.
| 2018-19 | 381 | 55.1% | 43.6% | 28.3% | 47.6% |
| 2017-18 | 378 | 59.9% | 43.1% | 21.7% | 45.2% |
| 2016-17 | 379 | 61.3% | 48.3% | 21.1% | 50.4% |
| 2015-16 | 380 | 54.6% | 46.1% | 25.0% | 45.1% |
| 2014-15 | 380 | 47.7% | 40.0% | 31.6% | 48.8% |