Jacoby Brissett gives the Arizona Cardinals a better shot the rest of the way, according to AccuScore's season simulation, run 50,000 times for each quarterback with everything else — schedule, results so far, the other 31 teams — held identical.
The switch comes after coach Mike LaFleur named Gardner Minshew the starter on Monday 2 November, moving rookie Carson Beck to backup and dropping Brissett, who had started every game this season, to third string. Minshew replaced Brissett late in the third quarter Sunday and led a comeback from 17-3 down to a 33-30 overtime win at Dallas; Brissett was 10-for-23 for 119 yards with four sacks before the pull, Minshew 17-for-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns.
Arizona's next game is Sunday 8 November at the Seattle Seahawks. AccuScore's expected margin there is -11.6 points with Brissett starting and -13.1 with Minshew.
| With Brissett | With Minshew | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 6.62 | 6.25 | -0.37 |
| Playoff chance | 5.9% | 4% | -1.9 pts |
| Division chance | 0.8% | 0.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Conference title | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Super Bowl | 0.12% | 0.08% | -0.04 pts |
Across the rest of the schedule, AccuScore's average expected margin per remaining game is -3.23 points with Brissett and -4.7 with Minshew — a gap of 1.47 points per game in Brissett's favor. The rest-of-season slate includes winnable spots (vs. Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders) and tougher ones (Seattle, at Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers), and Brissett's numbers are better or even in every one. Arizona's division and playoff math barely moves regardless: the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks remain the division contenders either way.
The simulation changes only the starting quarterback — it does not credit or blame either passer for reported injuries to Jeremiyah Love, Kendrick Bourne, Bam Knight or Jayden Williams, which ESPN also reported and which aren't modeled here.
The caveat: Minshew has played only about one and a half quarters plus overtime for Arizona this season, so his projection rests on far less 2026 play than Brissett's full-season body of work. AccuScore's model rates a player on what he has done so far — more Minshew snaps could shift this answer. Full team outlook at AccuScore's Cardinals page and market context at AccuScore's Market Index.