One NFL game each day gets written up in full: the simulated win probabilities, the projected score, the market we think is mispriced and the price we published it at. Every pick written about here is graded afterwards on the accuracy record, and today's NFL board is on the NFL predictions page.
Swapping Tanner McKee for Joe Milton costs the Philadelphia Eagles just 0.09 projected wins across 50,000 simulated seasons.
With Sam Darnold out, AccuScore's 50,000 simulated seasons show what a full run of Drew Lock would cost the Seattle Seahawks: a 43.1% playoff chance.
The reported trade for Jacoby Brissett would lift the Baltimore Ravens to an 18.8% playoff chance across 50,000 simulated seasons.
AccuScore gives the Baltimore Ravens a 20.0% chance to win as Joe Fagnano makes his first NFL start against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
AccuScore ran the Baltimore Ravens' rest of season 50,000 times with Lamar Jackson and with Joe Fagnano at quarterback — the gap is stark.
Sources say Tyler Huntley's turf toe will end his season. AccuScore's 50,000 simulated seasons show what the drop to Joe Fagnano costs the Baltimore Ravens.
AccuScore simulated the rest of the Arizona Cardinals' season 50,000 times with each quarterback starting, and the numbers favor keeping Jacoby Brissett.
Chicago Bears move up AccuScore's Market Index after their Monday night win, with the simulation giving them strong odds for Week 9 and the playoffs.
AccuScore's Market Index shows the Jacksonville Jaguars on top in Week 8, while the New York Giants climb five spots after the largest rating change in the poll.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Friday, October 30: Carolina Panthers +3.5 at -103 (Caesars), +2.1% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore explains why the Philadelphia Eagles' season forecast dropped after a 38-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Tuesday, October 27: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 at -105 (FanDuel), +5.0% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore simulated the Baltimore Ravens' rest of season 50,000 times with each starting quarterback, and the gap is wide.
AccuScore ran the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' rest of season 50,000 times with each quarterback starting, and the numbers favor Baker Mayfield.
We simulated the Giants' season 50,000 times with each quarterback. The switch to McCarthy costs New York about 11 points of playoff chances.
Losing Jalen Hurts for the season costs Philadelphia about 1.7 wins and roughly halves its playoff and NFC East chances, according to AccuScore's simulations.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, October 4: Under 47.5 at -105 (fanduel), +12.6% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Tuesday, September 29: PHI -4.5 at +100 (draftkings), +1.8% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 27: KC -10 at -108 (draftkings), +12.1% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 27: Under 40.5 at -110 (betmgm), +10.0% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Friday, September 25: Under 43 at -108 (betmgm), +7.8% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 27: Over 45.5 at -105 (fanduel), +14.6% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 20: Over 47.5 at -114 (polymarket), +15.9% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 13: CHI +3 at -115 (fanduel), +14.7% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Sunday, September 13: Over 38.5 at -108 (betmgm), +15.5% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.
AccuScore's top Gold edge for Thursday, September 10: Over 44.5 at -101 (polymarket), +5.4% EV. Full projection, every market, sharp splits and a fun fact inside.