Sam Darnold will miss Sunday's game at home against the Arizona Cardinals with a quad injury, coach Mike Macdonald said Wednesday. Darnold is week-to-week with a chance to play in Week 10. The plan is for Drew Lock to start, though Lock is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow and Macdonald said Seattle may have to turn to Jalen Milroe.
So how much is Darnold worth? AccuScore simulated the Seahawks' rest of season 50,000 times with each quarterback, holding the schedule, the 4-4 record so far and the other 31 teams identical. Over a full run without Darnold, Seattle's playoff chance falls 16.6 points.
| With Sam Darnold | With Drew Lock | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 10.04 | 9.22 | -0.82 |
| Playoff chance | 59.7% | 43.1% | -16.6 pts |
| Division chance | 19.3% | 11.6% | -7.7 pts |
| Conference chance | 11.1% | 8.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Super Bowl chance | 6.02% | 4.88% | -1.14 pts |
Sunday's game shows the size of it. AccuScore's expected margin against Arizona is +13.8 points with Darnold and +10.4 with Lock. Across the remaining games, the average expected margin goes from +5.96 points to +2.6, a difference of 3.36 points per game.
Seattle's NFC West rivals gain from it. The San Francisco 49ers go from a 69.6% division chance with Darnold to 74.9% with Lock, and the Los Angeles Rams' playoff chance goes from 43.9% to 50%.
The caveat: this is the cost of Lock starting every remaining game, which is not the plan, since Darnold could be back in Week 10. A shorter absence would cost less than the table shows. The simulation changes only the starter, so it does not model either quarterback's injury, and it did not run Milroe. Full season predictions and the Market Index track how these numbers move.