The Philadelphia Eagles will start Joe Milton on Sunday against the New York Giants, sources told ESPN and NFL Network. He replaces Tanner McKee, who has started the past three games, two days after coach Nick Sirianni said Philadelphia was sticking with McKee. The Eagles are 2-6 and have lost six straight, and Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve with blood clots in his lungs.
Does the switch change anything? Barely. AccuScore simulated the Eagles' rest of season 50,000 times with each quarterback, holding the schedule, the record so far and the other 31 teams identical, and the two come out almost level.
| With Tanner McKee | With Joe Milton | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 4.77 | 4.68 | -0.09 |
| Playoff chance | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Division chance | 3.4% | 3.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Conference chance | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0 pts |
| Super Bowl chance | 0.12% | 0.11% | -0.01 pts |
Sunday's home game against the Giants tells the same story: an expected margin of -3.9 points with McKee and -4.2 with Milton. Across the remaining games, the average expected margin goes from -6.57 points to -6.91, a difference of 0.34 points per game.
The NFC East race hardly notices. The Giants' division chance goes from 60.1% to 60.4%, the Dallas Cowboys stay at 21.3% and the Washington Commanders at 15.2%.
The caveat: AccuScore rates a quarterback on what he has done so far, and Milton's last regular-season work was four games off the bench for Dallas, so his number rests on little play. The simulation changes only the starter. Full season predictions and the Market Index track how these numbers move.