The Giants are handing the job to J.J. McCarthy. He starts Sunday in Houston, with Jameis Winston going to the bench. So we asked the question every Giants fan is arguing about: does the switch make New York better?
We ran the rest of the Giants' season through the AccuScore simulation twice, 50,000 seasons each time. Once with Winston starting all eleven remaining games, once with McCarthy. Nothing else changed: the schedule, the other 31 teams and the results already in the books.
The simulation says: not this season
| Giants, rest of season | Winston starts | McCarthy starts | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins (full season) | 7.3 | 6.6 | −0.7 |
| Make the playoffs | 38.8% | 28.1% | −10.7 pts |
| Win the NFC East | 34.8% | 25.3% | −9.5 pts |
| Win the NFC | 2.2% | 1.7% | −0.5 pts |
| Win the Super Bowl | 0.8% | 0.7% | −0.1 pts |
The difference comes down to one number. AccuScore's rating model, which values each quarterback from his passing production, rates Winston about 2.3 points per game better than McCarthy right now. Across the remaining schedule the Giants' average expected margin goes from −3.8 with Winston to −6.1 with McCarthy.
A division they were leading
That is a lot to give up in this NFC East. At 3-2-1, the Giants were the division's most likely winner in the Winston simulation, ahead of Philadelphia (27.3%), Dallas (25.7%) and Washington (12.2%). With McCarthy, the Eagles (31.3%) and the Cowboys (29.3%) both move ahead of New York.
The betting market was already sceptical. In AccuScore's Market Index, which rates every team only from betting prices, the Giants sit 30th of 32 (−4.76 points against an average team), the same place as a week earlier. The record says contender; the prices never believed it.
Sunday in Houston
McCarthy's first start is one of the toughest on the schedule. With McCarthy at quarterback, the Giants' expected margin in Houston is −12.0, against −9.7 with Winston. AccuScore's current projection gives New York a 20.9% chance of winning. Full numbers are on the game page and the Texans vs Giants head-to-head.
What would change the answer
The model judges McCarthy on what he has done so far. If he plays above that level, his rating rises with every start and so do the Giants' numbers. The simulation is not saying McCarthy cannot become the better quarterback. It is saying that, on the evidence available today, the switch costs the Giants about two-thirds of a win and a tenth of their playoff chances.
Simulations: AccuScore NFL engine, 50,000 seasons per scenario, run 21 October 2026. Giants team page.