The Minnesota Vikings traded a 2027 third-round pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for Kirk Cousins at the 10 Nov 2026 deadline, and AccuScore's season model ran the Vikings' rest of season 50,000 times with each quarterback getting every remaining start. The gap is real: Cousins' full-season scenario lifts the playoff number from 70.5% to 85.7% compared with the Carson Wentz scenario.
Kyler Murray, currently week-to-week with a sore hamstring, sits in between. Each simulation is the full-season value of one option, not a prediction of who actually starts Week 10 — that call hasn't been announced.
| Carson Wentz | Kirk Cousins | Kyler Murray | Change (Cousins vs Wentz) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 10.74 | 11.77 | 11.46 | +1.03 |
| Playoff | 70.5% | 85.7% | 81.7% | +15.2 pts |
| Division | 21.6% | 37.6% | 32.3% | +16.0 pts |
| Conference | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | +2.8 pts |
| Super Bowl | 4% | 4.97% | 4.81% | +0.97 pts |
The per-game gap tells the same story. AccuScore's average expected margin per remaining game is 1.06 points with Wentz, 4.99 with Cousins, and 3.76 with Murray — Cousins adds roughly 3.93 points a game over Wentz. That shows up immediately: in the 15 Nov trip to the Green Bay Packers, AccuScore has Minnesota as 5.7-point underdogs with Wentz, 3-point underdogs with Murray, and just 1.8-point underdogs with Cousins.
Division math moves too. With Cousins, Minnesota's 37.6% division share tops the Detroit Lions (25.3%) and Chicago Bears (24.7%) in AccuScore's field; with Wentz, the Vikings' 21.6% trails both.
None of this locks in who starts. AccuScore rates each quarterback on what he's actually done so far, so Murray's hamstring update, Wentz's next performance, or Cousins' first snaps in Minnesota could all shift these numbers before the next run. Check the Vikings team page and the Market Index for how the picture changes once a starter is named.