The Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) lost 38-21 to the Dallas Cowboys on 2026-10-26, and that result is the reason AccuScore's season simulation moved so sharply overnight.
Running every remaining Eagles game 50,000 times, AccuScore's model now gives Philadelphia a 10.8% playoff probability, down 9.1 points from yesterday's run. Projected wins fell to 6.0, a drop of 0.8, and the Eagles' division probability now sits at 9.2%.
The loss didn't just hurt Philadelphia directly — it boosted the teams competing with the Eagles for the same playoff spots. Dallas (3-4) saw its own playoff probability jump to 44.8% (+8.3 pts) off the same game, and the New York Giants (4-2) climbed to 48% (+2.2 pts) in the simulation. Washington Football Team (1-4) moved the other way, dropping to 12.8% (-2.1 pts). With rivals pulling ahead and one division foe fading, the math behind the Eagles' slide reflects both their own result and how the rest of the NFC moved around them.
The next game adds a little more weight to the drop. AccuScore's simulation has the Eagles traveling to face the Washington Commanders on 2026-11-01, and the model's win probability for that matchup ticked down from 31.9% to 31.1%, a 0.8-point change since yesterday's run.
None of these numbers are a verdict on the Eagles' season — they're a snapshot from AccuScore's daily 50,000-run simulation, updated with Sunday's result and the ripple effects across the NFC East. A win in Washington would be the clearest way for Philadelphia to start clawing back toward the numbers it had before the Cowboys game, but as of this run, the model has the Eagles needing results to go their way both on the field and around the division.