How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 3,669 played Bundesliga games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to May.
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Drawn | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 310 | 56.1% | 43.2% | 25.8% | 46.2% |
| 2024-25 | 306 | 52.3% | 38.6% | 25.5% | 45.4% |
| 2023-24 | 308 | 54.2% | 43.5% | 26.3% | 41.9% |
| 2022-23 | 306 | 53.1% | 47.4% | 24.5% | 42.2% |
| 2021-22 | 307 | 51.6% | 46.6% | 23.8% | 44.6% |
| 2020-21 | 306 | 51.5% | 42.2% | 26.5% | 41.4% |
| 2019-20 | 296 | 50.2% | 41.2% | 22.0% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | 306 | 53.6% | 45.1% | 23.9% | 52.6% |
Across 3,622 priced Bundesliga games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 52.5% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Home teams won 44.5% of 3,669 games in the archive, with 25.0% drawn.
Of 3,625 games with a posted total, 46.2% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.
| 2017-18 | 306 | 50.5% | 45.4% | 27.1% | 44.6% |
| 2016-17 | 306 | 54.4% | 49.0% | 24.2% | 50.3% |
| 2015-16 | 306 | 51.0% | 44.1% | 23.2% | 49.3% |
| 2014-15 | 306 | 51.0% | 47.4% | 26.8% | 45.8% |