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World Cup

Germany vs Paraguay Prediction

Final · GER 1–1 PAR · Mon, Jun 29, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

← Today's Edges
World Cup•FINALSilver Edge
GER

Germany

1

:
PAR

Paraguay

1

Win Probability

Moneyline

GER

-263

80.4% win prob

EV +5.5%

Betano

Draw

Draw

+390

14% prob

EV -14.7%

Betano

Moneyline

PAR

+900

5.2% win prob

EV -24.0%

Betano

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Total (Over/Under)O/U 2.25
0.53.56.5
Over Cover
50.0%
EV not published yet
-200Betano ↗
Under Cover
50.0%
EV not published yet
+165Betano ↗

Goal Scorer Probabilities

Paraguay

Julio Enciso
15%
Miguel Almiron
11%
Diego Gomez
11%
Omar Alderete
5%
Andres Cubas
3%
Antonio Sanabria
3%

Germany

Deniz Undav
61%
Lennart Karl
25%
Jamal Musiala
25%
Nico Schlotterbeck
23%
Kai Havertz
22%
Aleksandar Pavlovic
17%

Odds Comparison

Away / Draw / Home

BookGEREVDrawEVPAREV
Betano ↗-263+5.5%+390-14.7%+900-24.0%

Total (O/U)

BookLineOverEV (O)UnderEV (U)
Pinnacle ↗2.25-200—-200—
Betano ↗2.25-200—+165—
PAR 4-4-2Lineup4-4-2 GER
NeuerKimmichTahRüdigerBrownSanéNmechaPavlovićWirtzHavertzUndavGillCáceresGómezCanaleAlonsoAlmirónBobadillaCubasGalarzaÁvalosEnciso
PARGER

Match Events

117
🟨
Matías Galarza
PAR
115
🟨
Jamal Musiala
GER
106
🟨
Kai Havertz
GER
65
🟨
Andrés Cubas
PAR
54
⚽
Kai Havertz(ass. Florian Wirtz)
GER
42
⚽
Julio Enciso(ass. Matías Galarza)
PAR

Match Statistics

PARPossessionGER
24%
76%
7
Shots
21
3
On Target
6
6
Corners
16
12
Fouls
18
1
Offsides
4
6
Saves
2
0.42
xG
1.49
257 (161)
Passes
799 (719)
4-4-2
Formation
4-4-2

Player Stats

PAR

#PlayerMinGAPssSvRat
12Orlando GillG120——45(12)68.2
15Gustavo GómezD120——15(11)—6.5
13José CanaleD120——10(5)—7.5
6Junior AlonsoD119——25(17)—6.3
4Juan CáceresD99——23(17)—6.9
14Andrés CubasM120——20(15)—6.6
23Matías GalarzaM120—124(13)—6.9
16Damián BobadillaM99——17(13)—7
10Miguel AlmirónM90——22(16)—7.2
19Julio EncisoF571—5(5)—7.6
21Gabriel ÁvalosF55——12(6)—6.7
Substitutes
22Gastón OlveiraG sub——————
1Roberto FernándezG sub——————
2Gustavo VelázquezD sub30——3(2)—6.6
5Fabián BalbuenaD sub1—————
3Omar AldereteD sub——————
26Alexandro MaidanaD sub——————
11MauricioM sub63——16(13)—7.2
20Braian OjedaM sub21——8(7)—6.3
17Alejandro RomeroM sub——————
24Gustavo CaballeroF sub65——9(7)—6.6
9Antonio SanabriaF sub21——3(2)—6.9
7Ramón SosaF sub——————
18Alex ArceF sub——————
25Isidro PittaF sub——————

Where to Bet

silver
GER ML+5.5% EV

Win probability: 80.4%

Betano
-263Bet →

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AccuScore's simulation makes Germany 80% to win, Paraguay 5%, with a 14% chance of a draw. Final score: Germany 1, Paraguay 1.

Projection updated Aug 17, 4:34 PM ET

Who will win Germany vs Paraguay?

AccuScore's simulation makes Germany the more likely winner at 80%, with a 14% chance of a draw. The game finished Germany 1, Paraguay 1.

Will Paraguay beat Germany?

AccuScore's simulation gives Paraguay a 5% chance of beating Germany, with 80% for Germany and 14% for a draw. It finished Paraguay 1, Germany 1.

Germany predictions & record →Paraguay predictions & record →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Germany and Paraguay come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

GermanyLWW
  • Jun 25vs EcuadorL 1–2
  • Jun 20at Ivory CoastW 2–1
  • Jun 14at CuracaoW 7–1

Germany have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).

ParaguayDWL
  • Jun 25at AustraliaD 0–0
  • Jun 19vs TurkeyW 1–0
  • Jun 12vs USAL 1–4

Paraguay have won 1 of their last 3 (D-W-L, most recent first).