Ball State
3-0
30
Massachusetts
5-0
31
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MASS | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | -0.1% | -115 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -104 | +0.1% | -118 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3.5 | -102 | +0.6% | -118 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3.5 | -103 | +0.4% | -116 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +1.1% | -120 | -5.2% |
| Book | MASS | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -170 | -1.3% | +142 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -166 | -0.9% | +138 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -165 | -0.8% | +140 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -162 | -0.4% | +138 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -165 | -0.8% | +140 | -3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -108 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -108 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -110 | -3.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
| MASS | 0 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
K. Luster pass to J. McDougle for 20 yds, for a TD (B. Boehm KICK)
BALL
7–0
E. Faulkner run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Morris KICK)
MASS
7–7
B. Boehm 22 yd FG GOOD
BALL
10–7
W. Watson III pass to Ja. Lewis for 64 yds, for a TD (D. Morris KICK)
MASS
10–14
J. Bonds run for 42 yds, for a TD (B. Boehm KICK)
BALL
17–14
W. Watson III run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Morris KICK)
MASS
17–21
D. Morris 23 yd FG GOOD
MASS
17–24
K. Luster run for 2 yds, for a TD (B. Boehm KICK)
BALL
24–24
J. Bonds run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Boehm PAT MISSED)
BALL
30–24
W. Watson III run for 13 yds, for a TD (D. Morris KICK)
MASS
30–31
| BALL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldric Luster | 17/27 | 182 | 6.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MASS | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson III | 17/25 | 302 | 12.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Venue
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.3%
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NCAAF
Final · BALL 30–31 MASS ·
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts 61% to beat Ball State (39%). Final score: Ball State 30, Massachusetts 31.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts the more likely winner at 61%. The game finished Ball State 30, Massachusetts 31.
AccuScore's simulation gives Massachusetts a 61% chance of beating Ball State, against 39% for Ball State. It finished Massachusetts 31, Ball State 30.
Ball State (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.0–8.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Massachusetts (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 4.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Ball State and Massachusetts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ball State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Massachusetts have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2014: Ball State 1, Massachusetts 1. The last meeting, on Oct 31, 2015, finished Massachusetts 10, Ball State 20.
Ball State are 33-17 as favourite and 24-75 as underdog, and 28-61 on the road (31% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Massachusetts are 7-8 as favourite and 11-84 as underdog, and 10-42 at home (19% of 52 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | BALL | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 33-17 | 7-8 |
| As underdog | 24-75 | 11-84 |
| At home | 32-37 | 10-42 |
| On the road | 28-61 | 8-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →