Toledo
7-0
20
Sacramento State
2-0
17
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SAC | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +25.5 | -112 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +25.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +25.5 | -112 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +25.5 | -113 | -1.1% | -106 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +25.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Book | SAC | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1300 | -15.7% | -2800 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1400 | -13.3% | -3500 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1550 | -9.6% | -3000 | -0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1300 | -15.7% | -3500 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +1300 | -15.7% | -4000 | -1.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -115 | +1.8% | -105 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -105 | +1.5% | -115 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | +0.8% | -110 | -4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53.5 | -106 | +1.3% | -114 | -5.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -4.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| SAC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
J. Richter pass to A. Simpson for 18 yds, for a TD (R. Griffith KICK)
TOL
7–0
G. Meadors 38 yd FG GOOD
SAC
7–3
J. Sharman pass to M. Coleman for 2 yds, for a TD (G. Meadors KICK)
SAC
7–10
R. Griffith 34 yd FG GOOD
TOL
10–10
A. Ison run for 19 yds, for a TD (R. Griffith KICK)
TOL
17–10
R. Griffith 40 yd FG GOOD
TOL
20–10
J. Curtis run for 3 yds, for a TD (S. Marks KICK)
SAC
20–17
| TOL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Alan Richter | 9/17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SAC | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Sharman | 8/15 | 113 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Salazar Jr. | 12/18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue
Hornet Stadium, Sacramento, CA
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NCAAF
Final · TOL 20–17 SAC ·
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 95% to beat Sacramento State (5%). Final score: Toledo 20, Sacramento State 17.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 95%. The game finished Toledo 20, Sacramento State 17.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento State a 5% chance of beating Toledo, against 95% for Toledo. It finished Sacramento State 17, Toledo 20.
Toledo (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.2–2.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento State (2-8 so far) project to finish 2.2–9.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 9.2–2.8 | 42% | 2% |
| Sacramento State | 2.2–9.8 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Toledo and Sacramento State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toledo have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Sacramento State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Toledo are 87-27 as favourite and 13-29 as underdog, and 49-39 on the road (56% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TOL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 87-27 | — |
| As underdog | 13-29 | — |
| At home | 56-22 | — |
| On the road | 49-39 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →