NCAAF
Final · VT 28–51 SMU ·
Virginia Tech
6-0
28
SMU
6-0
51
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SMU | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -102 | +1.0% | -120 | -5.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -110 | +1.0% | -108 | -5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -109 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | +1.5% | -105 | -6.2% |
| Book | SMU | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | -0.3% | +185 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -210 | +0.8% | +172 | -7.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -225 | -0.3% | +188 | -5.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -225 | -0.3% | +185 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | +0.8% | +175 | -7.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 56.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -112 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 56.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | -3.7% | -109 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| SMU | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 51 |
D. Green run for 12 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
0–7
B. Baird 47 yd FG GOOD
SMU
0–10
E. Grunkemeyer run for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Love KICK)
VT
7–10
B. Baird 26 yd FG GOOD
SMU
7–13
K. Jennings pass to Y. Knight for 46 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
7–20
J. Overton Jr. run for 22 yds, for a TD (J. Love KICK)
VT
14–20
B. Baird 50 yd FG GOOD
SMU
14–23
K. Raphael run for 3 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
14–30
K. Jennings pass to Y. Knight for 13 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
14–37
K. Jennings pass to Y. Knight for 5 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
14–44
J. Overton Jr. run for 2 yds, for a TD (E. Grunkemeyer Run For Two-point Conversion)
VT
22–44
E. Grunkemeyer pass to Q. Brown for 3 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
VT
28–44
K. Jennings pass to J. Cooper for 50 yds, for a TD (B. Baird KICK)
SMU
28–51
| VT | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Grunkemeyer | 28/38 | 291 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SMU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jennings | 24/32 | 350 | 10.9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes SMU 69% to beat Virginia Tech (31%). Final score: Virginia Tech 28, SMU 51.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU the more likely winner at 69%. The game finished Virginia Tech 28, SMU 51.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 69% chance of beating Virginia Tech, against 31% for Virginia Tech. It finished SMU 51, Virginia Tech 28.
Virginia Tech (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | 7.9–4.1 | <1% | 3% |
| SMU | 8.0–4.0 | <1% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Virginia Tech and SMU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Virginia Tech have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
SMU have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Virginia Tech are 62-40 as favourite and 22-40 as underdog, and 42-42 on the road (50% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
SMU are 58-13 as favourite and 21-66 as underdog, and 50-32 at home (61% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 62-40 | 58-13 |
| As underdog | 22-40 | 21-66 |
| At home | 45-42 | 50-32 |
| On the road | 42-42 | 36-49 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →