NCAAF
Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
4-0
Win Probability
Auburn hosts an unbeaten Arkansas side that arrives in Jordan-Hare with a 3-0 record, but the simulation decisively favours the Tigers. Byrum Brown is projected for 200 passing yards while KJ Jackson projects to 180, a narrow margin that understates the gap in overall offensive outlook—Auburn's model output runs to 32.2 points against Arkansas's 20.9. The game turns on Auburn's ability to control the ground game; Jeremiah Cobb is projected for 50 rushing yards in a matchup where the Tigers' running attack is expected to be decisively more productive than the Razorbacks'. In prior games where AccuScore favoured one side this strongly, that side won 76 percent of the time across 2,201 graded contests. For Arkansas to pull the upset, it would need to force Auburn into uncharacteristic passing volume while generating consistent rushing production itself.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ARK ML
ARK +240
-1.3% EV
26.5% leads · push 7.2%
Fanatics ↗
1H AUB ML
AUB -275
-1.2% EV
66.3% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | AUB | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -106 | -0.9% | -114 | -3.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10 | -108 | +0.4% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -108 | -1.3% | -113 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10.5 | -105 | -0.6% | -115 | -3.8% |
| Book | AUB | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -395 | -1.8% | +310 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -385 | -1.5% | +310 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -400 | -1.9% | +310 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -390 | -1.6% | +305 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -425 | -2.4% | +320 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -115 | -6.3% | -105 | +1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -118 | -6.8% | -102 | +2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -108 | -7.2% | -110 | +3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54 | -106 | -5.6% | -114 | +1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -8.5% | -105 | +4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn 77% to beat Arkansas (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Auburn a 77% chance of beating Arkansas, against 23% for Arkansas. Auburn are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.7–8.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Auburn (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arkansas and Auburn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arkansas have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Auburn have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Arkansas 6, Auburn 8. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished Auburn 24, Arkansas 33.
Arkansas are 39-19 as favourite and 21-74 as underdog, and 16-52 on the road (24% of 68 games, 2011–2026).
Auburn are 66-25 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 66-37 at home (64% of 103 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-19 | 66-25 |
| As underdog | 21-74 | 19-52 |
| At home | 48-45 | 66-37 |
| On the road | 16-52 | 22-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →