NCAAF
Oklahoma
4-0
Florida
5-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Oklahoma travels to face undefeated Florida, where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. The Gators' path to victory runs through controlling what Oklahoma can do in the passing game: John Mateer is projected for 180 yards through the air, while Florida's own passer Tramell Jones Jr. is expected to manage just 130. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 66% of the time across 2,499 graded contests. Oklahoma would need to establish the ground game—with Lloyd Avant projected for 40 rushing yards—and force Florida into mistakes to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OU ML
OU +170
+1.2% EV
34.7% leads · push 8.6%
DraftKings ↗
1H FLA ML
FLA -185
-2.0% EV
56.7% leads · push 8.6%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | FLA | EV | OU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.0% | -115 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -118 | -2.5% | -102 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6.5 | -108 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.0% | -114 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.0% | -115 | -1.5% |
| Book | FLA | EV | OU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -238 | -3.4% | +195 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -220 | -2.3% | +184 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -3.2% | +190 | -0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -245 | -3.8% | +200 | +1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -2.6% | +190 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +0.4% | -115 | -4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -118 | +0.1% | -104 | -5.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -115 | +0.7% | -102 | -4.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45 | -112 | +0.2% | -108 | -4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +0.4% | -115 | -4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 34.4%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 66% to beat Oklahoma (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida a 66% chance of beating Oklahoma, against 34% for Oklahoma. Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oklahoma (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.5–6.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oklahoma and Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma are 120-29 as favourite and 12-11 as underdog, and 58-22 on the road (73% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Florida are 72-27 as favourite and 19-40 as underdog, and 59-30 at home (66% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 120-29 | 72-27 |
| As underdog | 12-11 | 19-40 |
| At home | 77-23 | 59-30 |
| On the road | 58-22 | 36-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →