NCAAF • Sat, Nov 7, 20:30
Two undefeated programs meet in Baton Rouge with the simulation favoring LSU decisively. Alabama's Keelon Russell projects for 190 passing yards against a Tigers defense that could limit the visiting offense's efficiency. Sam Leavitt and the home team's attack shape the game's outcome—LSU's passing game (200 yards projected) versus Alabama's ability to generate pressure and stops will determine the margin.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU 63% to beat Alabama (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives LSU a 63% chance of beating Alabama, against 37% for Alabama. LSU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alabama (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 56% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
LSU (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 52% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Alabama and LSU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Alabama have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
LSU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Alabama 10, LSU 3. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2024, finished Alabama 42, LSU 13.
Alabama are 140-22 as favourite and 7-2 as underdog, and 59-15 on the road (80% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
LSU are 93-24 as favourite and 17-23 as underdog, and 77-21 at home (79% of 98 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 140-22 | 93-24 |
| As underdog | 7-2 | 17-23 |
| At home | 93-12 | 77-21 |
| On the road | 59-15 | 39-29 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →