Georgia
7-0
Ole Miss
6-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
UGA
-170
56.5% win prob
EV -5.1%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
MISS
+155
43.5% win prob
EV +5.5%
Polymarket
Georgia travels to face Ole Miss in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the Bulldogs. Trinidad Chambliss projects for 210 passing yards while Gunner Stockton is expected to throw for 190, a modest gap that reflects how tightly matched these offences appear in the model's view. The game hinges on Ole Miss's ability to generate yards on the ground: Makhi Frazier is projected for 50 rushing yards, and if the Rebels can't move the ball consistently between the tackles, Georgia's slight advantage compounds. On games shaped this way—where the favoured side wins between 50 and 60 percent—AccuScore's model has won 55 percent of 2,687 graded contests. For Ole Miss to pull the upset at home, the Rebels would need Frazier to exceed his projection and limit Dwight Phillips Jr. beyond his modest 55-yard expectation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UGA ML
UGA -135
-2.7% EV
49.8% leads · push 8.0%
BetMGM ↗
1H MISS ML
MISS +118
+0.0% EV
42.2% leads · push 8.0%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UGA -1.5 -108
-3.9% EV
47.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
MISS +1.5 -108
+0.2% EV
52.1% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -102
-0.8% EV
49.7% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -118
-3.6% EV
50.3% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | MISS | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -112 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +3.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -112 | -7.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +3.5 | -105 | +3.6% | -115 | -7.8% |
| Book | MISS | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | +3.3% | -175 | -5.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +142 | +2.6% | -172 | -5.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +145 | +3.3% | -175 | -5.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +150 | +4.4% | -179 | -6.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +150 | +4.4% | -175 | -5.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 55.5 | -112 | +2.6% | -108 | -7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 55.5 | -112 | +2.6% | -105 | -6.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | +0.7% | -112 | -6.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 43.5%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia 56% to beat Ole Miss (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ole Miss a 44% chance of beating Georgia, against 56% for Georgia. Ole Miss are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.0–2.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ole Miss (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 49% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia and Ole Miss come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Ole Miss have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2011: Georgia 3, Ole Miss 2. The last meeting, on Dec 31, 2025, finished Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34.
Georgia are 120-23 as favourite and 9-14 as underdog, and 58-16 on the road (78% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
Ole Miss are 61-21 as favourite and 18-49 as underdog, and 50-33 at home (60% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UGA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 120-23 | 61-21 |
| As underdog | 9-14 | 18-49 |
| At home | 79-22 | 50-33 |
| On the road | 58-16 | 29-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →