NCAAF
Vanderbilt
3-0
Mississippi State
4-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Vanderbilt travels to face undefeated Mississippi State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The game hinges on whether Vanderbilt's passing attack—led by Jared Curtis's projected 170 yards—can keep pace with Mississippi State's ground game, where Kolin Wilson is expected to contribute 45 rushing yards. Junior Sherrill projects for 55 receiving yards as the Commodores' primary target, but the Bulldogs' Anthony Evans III offers similar receiving production at 50 yards. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 66 percent of the time across 2,499 graded contests. Vanderbilt would need to generate offensive efficiency well above projection to overcome playing on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H VAN ML
VAN +125
-2.6% EV
38.4% leads · push 8.4%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H MSST ML
MSST -138
+0.1% EV
53.2% leads · push 8.4%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
VAN +2.5 -109
-2.5% EV
49.6% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
MSST -2.5 -108
-1.5% EV
50.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -124
+3.2% EV
58.9% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +105
-7.9% EV
41.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | MSST | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -108 | +1.7% | -112 | -5.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -114 | +2.5% | -104 | -6.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -102 | +3.1% | -115 | -6.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3 | -110 | +1.2% | -109 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -120 | +1.3% | +100 | -5.9% |
| Book | MSST | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -148 | +1.3% | +124 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -137 | +2.9% | +114 | -8.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -145 | +1.7% | +120 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -150 | +1.0% | +127 | -6.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -145 | +1.7% | +125 | -6.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | +3.9% | -108 | -8.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +4.4% | -110 | -8.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | +3.9% | -105 | -8.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -104 | +5.9% | -115 | -9.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +4.4% | -110 | -8.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.2%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State 61% to beat Vanderbilt (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 61% chance of beating Vanderbilt, against 39% for Vanderbilt. Mississippi State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Vanderbilt (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.0–8.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 4.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Mississippi State | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Vanderbilt and Mississippi State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vanderbilt have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Mississippi State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Vanderbilt are 34-14 as favourite and 25-82 as underdog, and 23-51 on the road (31% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 34-14 | — |
| As underdog | 25-82 | — |
| At home | 40-49 | — |
| On the road | 23-51 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →