Texas
6-0
Missouri
6-0
Win Probability
Texas visits Missouri in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the Longhorns. Both offences project to modest production, with Arch Manning at 170 passing yards and Jamal Roberts at 65 rushing yards—a narrow margin that will likely decide a low-scoring game. The projection hinges on field position and efficiency: whichever team converts its limited opportunities into points figures to prevail. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 55 percent of the time across 2,687 graded contests. For Missouri to come away with the upset at home, it would need Roberts and the ground game to outpace what the model expects, or Manning to fall short of his passing projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TEX ML
TEX -135
-3.2% EV
49.0% leads · push 8.3%
BetMGM ↗
1H MIZ ML
MIZ +120
+1.1% EV
42.7% leads · push 8.3%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | MIZ | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -102 | +1.3% | -118 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | +1.8% | -120 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3 | -118 | +0.1% | -102 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | +101 | +2.1% | -122 | -6.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Book | MIZ | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +120 | +0.5% | -142 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +120 | +0.5% | -142 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +120 | +0.5% | -145 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +122 | +0.9% | -143 | -4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +115 | -0.7% | -135 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 42.5 | -102 | -0.9% | -118 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 42.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -112 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 42.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -114 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 41.5 | -115 | -1.7% | -105 | -2.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.8%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 54% to beat Missouri (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri a 46% chance of beating Texas, against 54% for Texas. Missouri are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Texas (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–3.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 42% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas and Missouri come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Missouri have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2011: Texas 1, Missouri 1. The last meeting, on Dec 27, 2017, finished Texas 33, Missouri 16.
Texas are 76-30 as favourite and 20-41 as underdog, and 39-39 on the road (50% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Missouri are 64-20 as favourite and 24-49 as underdog, and 61-29 at home (68% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TEX | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | 64-20 |
| As underdog | 20-41 | 24-49 |
| At home | 70-34 | 61-29 |
| On the road | 39-39 | 34-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →