NCAAF • Sat, Nov 7, 23:15
When Kentucky travels to Knoxville to face Tennessee, the simulation leans clearly toward the home team. Kenny Minchey is projected for 180 passing yards against George MacIntyre's 160, but Tennessee's ground game offers the decisive advantage: DeSean Bishop is projected for 85 rushing yards compared to Jason Patterson's 45. The game turns on whether Kentucky can generate enough offensive volume to keep pace with Tennessee's efficiency.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee 66% to beat Kentucky (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee a 66% chance of beating Kentucky, against 34% for Kentucky. Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Kentucky (7-1 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.2–3.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Kentucky and Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kentucky have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Tennessee have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Kentucky 4, Tennessee 10. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished Tennessee 34, Kentucky 56.
Kentucky are 46-14 as favourite and 28-68 as underdog, and 22-47 on the road (32% of 69 games, 2011–2026).
Tennessee are 58-24 as favourite and 14-55 as underdog, and 57-34 at home (63% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-14 | 58-24 |
| As underdog | 28-68 | 14-55 |
| At home | 52-41 | 57-34 |
| On the road | 22-47 | 24-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →