NCAAF
BYU
7-0
Utah
8-0
Win Probability
BYU arrives in Salt Lake City unbeaten but facing a Utah team that the model clearly favours at home. Both Bear Bachmeier and Devon Dampier project to 180 passing yards, yet the simulation expects Utah to control the game through the ground: Daniel Bray is projected for 50 rushing yards against BYU's combined 20. In games shaped this way—where the home side carried a strong lean—AccuScore's pick won 66% of 2,499 graded contests. For BYU to pull the upset, its receiving corps would need to exceed projections; Legend Glasker is forecast for only 40 yards, and the Cougars' pass catchers as a group must make plays in space to compensate for Utah's ground advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BYU ML
BYU +143
-6.2% EV
33.0% leads · push 7.3%
Caesars ↗
1H UTAH ML
UTAH -160
+2.1% EV
59.7% leads · push 7.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BYU +2.5 +100
-6.6% EV
43.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
UTAH -2.5 -120
+1.9% EV
56.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -118
+0.6% EV
54.8% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +106
-3.5% EV
45.2% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | UTAH | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4.5 | -105 | +5.8% | -115 | -9.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -106 | +5.5% | -113 | -9.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -4 | -110 | +5.8% | -108 | -9.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -4.5 | -105 | +5.8% | -114 | -9.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | -115 | +5.9% | -105 | -10.7% |
| Book | UTAH | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -185 | +2.8% | +154 | -10.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -188 | +2.5% | +155 | -10.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -190 | +2.4% | +155 | -10.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -190 | +2.4% | +156 | -9.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -170 | +4.5% | +145 | -11.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -105 | -2.1% | -115 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -118 | -2.2% | -104 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -105 | -2.1% | -112 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -106 | -2.3% | -113 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 49.5 | -105 | -2.1% | -115 | -2.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 57.1%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah 69% to beat BYU (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah a 69% chance of beating BYU, against 31% for BYU. Utah are at home and favoured on these numbers.
BYU (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.3–2.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah (8-0 so far) project to finish 10.7–1.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How BYU and Utah come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
BYU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Utah have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2011: BYU 3, Utah 8. The last meeting, on Oct 17, 2025, finished Utah 21, BYU 24.
BYU are 77-24 as favourite and 26-33 as underdog, and 49-38 on the road (56% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
Utah are 84-25 as favourite and 18-28 as underdog, and 53-25 at home (68% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BYU | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 77-24 | 84-25 |
| As underdog | 26-33 | 18-28 |
| At home | 60-22 | 53-25 |
| On the road | 49-38 | 51-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →