UCF
4-0
Kansas
3-0
Win Probability
When UCF visits Kansas, the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Duke Watson is projected for 55 rushing yards and Josh Derry for 40 receiving yards, but Kansas counters with Dylan Edwards expected to gain 65 on the ground. The game hinges on whether UCF can generate enough volume through the passing game to offset Kansas's ground advantage. On similar matchups across other seasons, AccuScore's favored side won 66% of the time. For UCF to pull the upset, the Knights would need their receivers to exceed their projections significantly while containing Edwards on the ground.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UCF ML
UCF +128
-1.9% EV
38.5% leads · push 8.3%
FanDuel ↗
1H KU ML
KU -145
-0.9% EV
53.2% leads · push 8.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | KU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3.5 | -108 | -1.7% | -112 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -112 | -2.5% | -108 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -108 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3.5 | -104 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.4% |
| Book | KU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -170 | -2.0% | +142 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -170 | -2.0% | +142 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -175 | -2.5% | +145 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -170 | -2.0% | +141 | -2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -170 | -2.0% | +145 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +1.8% | -115 | -6.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.9% | -110 | -7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +1.8% | -115 | -6.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -103 | +2.3% | -116 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +1.8% | -115 | -6.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas 61% to beat UCF (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas a 61% chance of beating UCF, against 40% for UCF. Kansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UCF (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UCF and Kansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UCF have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Kansas have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: UCF 0, Kansas 1. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished Kansas 27, UCF 20.
UCF are 85-24 as favourite and 14-37 as underdog, and 41-43 on the road (49% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas are 8-10 as favourite and 15-117 as underdog, and 21-57 at home (27% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 85-24 | 8-10 |
| As underdog | 14-37 | 15-117 |
| At home | 60-25 | 21-57 |
| On the road | 41-43 | 7-73 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →