NCAAF
Cincinnati
5-0
Houston
6-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Cincinnati team travels to face an undefeated Houston squad in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Cougars' ground game projects as the fulcrum: Makhi Hughes is expected to gain 70 rushing yards, while Cole Tabb projects for only 60, a gap that compounds Houston's advantage in field position and pace. JC French IV will need to exceed his projected 200 passing yards substantially to keep Cincinnati in range, but AccuScore's models shaped like this one have favoured their indicated side in 76 of 100 similar matchups. Cincinnati's path to an upset runs through forcing Houston into inefficiency early; any letdown in Houston's run defence would tighten what now reads as a decisive favourite.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CIN ML
CIN +250
-0.0% EV
26.6% leads · push 6.8%
Caesars ↗
1H HOU ML
HOU -285
-1.6% EV
66.6% leads · push 6.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CIN +6.5 +102
-0.8% EV
48.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
HOU -6.5 -120
-3.0% EV
51.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 30.5 -120
-1.7% EV
52.7% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 30.5 +105
-1.6% EV
47.3% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -113 | -1.5% | -106 | -2.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10.5 | -108 | -0.5% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -112 | -1.3% | -112 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Book | HOU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -1.7% | +320 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -400 | -1.5% | +310 | -4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -400 | -1.5% | +320 | -3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -420 | -2.0% | +330 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -425 | -2.1% | +320 | -3.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 61.5 | -112 | -3.1% | -108 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 60.5 | -114 | -1.3% | -106 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 61.5 | -108 | -2.3% | -110 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 61.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -109 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 61.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 78% to beat Cincinnati (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston a 78% chance of beating Cincinnati, against 22% for Cincinnati. Houston are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cincinnati (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.7–3.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 6.6–5.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Houston | 8.7–3.3 | 2% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Cincinnati and Houston come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Houston have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2013: Cincinnati 6, Houston 2. The last meeting, on Sep 21, 2024, finished Houston 0, Cincinnati 34.
Cincinnati are 86-18 as favourite and 16-37 as underdog, and 47-36 on the road (57% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
Houston are 83-30 as favourite and 21-31 as underdog, and 57-31 at home (65% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 86-18 | 83-30 |
| As underdog | 16-37 | 21-31 |
| At home | 59-24 | 57-31 |
| On the road | 47-36 | 50-34 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →