Colorado
3-0
Arizona State
4-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
COLO
+145
36.1% win prob
EV -5.8%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
ASU
-158
63.9% win prob
EV +2.2%
Polymarket
Colorado travels to face Arizona State in a matchup where the simulation favors the Sun Devils. Isaac Wilson projects for 170 passing yards while Cardae Mack is expected to contribute 65 rushing yards, but the game turns on Arizona State's passing attack—Jake Fette is projected for just 60 yards, a severe constraint that shapes how this offense can move the ball. In games where AccuScore has leaned this clearly toward the home side, that side won 66% of the time across 2,499 graded contests. For Colorado to pull the upset, the Buffaloes would need to generate explosive plays through the air and force Arizona State into predictable situations where that limited passing game becomes untenable.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H COLO ML
COLO +130
-3.3% EV
37.4% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
1H ASU ML
ASU -145
+0.3% EV
55.2% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
COLO +2.5 -108
-4.0% EV
47.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ASU -2.5 -109
+0.1% EV
52.3% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 +105
+0.7% EV
49.5% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -125
-4.5% EV
50.5% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | ASU | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | +3.7% | -115 | -8.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | +3.7% | -112 | -7.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -4 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | +3.7% | -115 | -8.0% |
| Book | ASU | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -162 | +1.7% | +136 | -7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -172 | +0.5% | +142 | -6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -165 | +1.3% | +138 | -7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -170 | +0.7% | +142 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -165 | +1.3% | +140 | -6.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -108 | +2.2% | -112 | -6.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -108 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -109 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.0%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State 64% to beat Colorado (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona State a 64% chance of beating Colorado, against 36% for Colorado. Arizona State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colorado (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 4.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Arizona State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Colorado and Arizona State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Arizona State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Colorado 3, Arizona State 9. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Arizona State 42, Colorado 17.
Colorado are 25-9 as favourite and 21-97 as underdog, and 19-61 on the road (24% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona State are 61-25 as favourite and 23-48 as underdog, and 62-28 at home (69% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COLO | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 25-9 | 61-25 |
| As underdog | 21-97 | 23-48 |
| At home | 32-48 | 62-28 |
| On the road | 19-61 | 31-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →