Iowa State
4-0
Baylor
5-0
Win Probability
Iowa State travels to face Baylor in a matchup that heavily favors the host. The simulation leans decisively toward Baylor, which projects to outscore Iowa State by double digits through superior passing volume: DJ Lagway is projected for 200 yards while Jaylen Raynor reaches 170. Iowa State's running game will need to compensate, with Aiden Flora projected for 60 yards, but Baylor's ground attack should keep pace through Caden Knighten at 50 yards. When AccuScore has favored a side this strongly across similar matchups, that side won 76 percent of the time. For Iowa State to pull the upset, it would need Raynor and Flora to substantially exceed these projections while forcing Lagway into an unusually quiet outing.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ISU ML
ISU +235
-0.2% EV
27.7% leads · push 6.9%
FanDuel ↗
1H BAY ML
BAY -275
-1.9% EV
65.4% leads · push 6.9%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | BAY | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -118 | -3.2% | -102 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -112 | -2.1% | -105 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10 | -105 | -2.1% | -115 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -115 | -2.7% | -105 | -1.8% |
| Book | BAY | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -355 | -1.8% | +280 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -375 | -2.4% | +290 | -1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -350 | -1.7% | +290 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -360 | -2.0% | +290 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -425 | -3.6% | +320 | +2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -118 | -0.7% | -102 | -3.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | +1.0% | -110 | -5.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 50.5 | -115 | -0.1% | -105 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 51 | -109 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | -0.3% | -115 | -4.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor 75% to beat Iowa State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor a 75% chance of beating Iowa State, against 25% for Iowa State. Baylor are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iowa State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Baylor (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.0–5.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 5.9–6.1 | 0% | <1% |
| Baylor | 7.0–5.0 | <1% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Iowa State and Baylor come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Iowa State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Baylor have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Iowa State 5, Baylor 8. The last meeting, on Oct 5, 2024, finished Baylor 21, Iowa State 43.
Iowa State are 45-16 as favourite and 24-70 as underdog, and 31-50 on the road (38% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Baylor are 72-23 as favourite and 24-40 as underdog, and 58-27 at home (68% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 45-16 | 72-23 |
| As underdog | 24-70 | 24-40 |
| At home | 44-41 | 58-27 |
| On the road | 31-50 | 44-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →