Oklahoma State
5-0
Kansas State
4-0
Win Probability
Oklahoma State travels to Manhattan to face Kansas State in a matchup between undefeated teams. The simulation leans decisively toward the Cowboys, who project to win this contest. Oklahoma State's passing game, led by Drew Mestemaker's projected 220 yards, will need to establish itself early; Kansas State's Joe Jackson represents the hosts' best offensive weapon at 55 projected rushing yards. The deciding factor is whether Oklahoma State's aerial attack can sustain drives against Kansas State's defense—if the Cowboys fall short there, the Wildcats' ground game keeps them in range. When AccuScore has favored a side this heavily in past games of similar probability shape, that side won 66% of the time.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OKST ML
OKST -175
-4.1% EV
53.8% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
1H KSU ML
KSU +155
+3.3% EV
39.0% leads · push 7.2%
betPARX ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
OKST -3.5 -106
-5.1% EV
46.2% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
KSU +3.5 -110
+1.4% EV
53.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 31.5 +105
-1.3% EV
47.5% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 31.5 -125
-2.8% EV
52.5% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | KSU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6.5 | -102 | +6.3% | -118 | -10.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +6.5 | -102 | +6.3% | -120 | -10.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +7 | -110 | +5.6% | -108 | -9.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +6.5 | -106 | +5.3% | -113 | -9.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +6.5 | +100 | +6.9% | -120 | -10.5% |
| Book | KSU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +200 | +8.8% | -245 | -7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +202 | +9.2% | -245 | -7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +195 | +7.8% | -235 | -6.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +199 | +8.6% | -240 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +210 | +10.8% | -250 | -7.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 62.5 | -108 | -0.2% | -112 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 62.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 62.5 | -108 | -0.2% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 62.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -114 | -4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 63.5 | +100 | -1.0% | -120 | -3.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 39.2%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State 61% to beat Kansas State (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas State a 39% chance of beating Oklahoma State, against 61% for Oklahoma State. Kansas State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Oklahoma State (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.3–4.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 7.3–4.7 | <1% | 4% |
| Kansas State | 5.7–6.3 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oklahoma State and Kansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Kansas State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Oklahoma State 7, Kansas State 7. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2025, finished Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 6.
Oklahoma State are 80-25 as favourite and 22-34 as underdog, and 44-37 on the road (54% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas State are 62-17 as favourite and 30-49 as underdog, and 60-30 at home (67% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OKST | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 80-25 | 62-17 |
| As underdog | 22-34 | 30-49 |
| At home | 60-30 | 60-30 |
| On the road | 44-37 | 39-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →