West Virginia
5-0
Texas Tech
7-0
Win Probability
Texas Tech hosts West Virginia in a matchup between unbeaten teams, but AccuScore's simulation decisively favors the Red Raiders. The model projects Michael Hawkins Jr. to throw for 170 yards while Thomas Castellanos manages just 110, a gap that reflects how thoroughly Texas Tech is expected to control the game. West Virginia's Cam Cook will need to find room to run beyond his projected 65 yards if the Mountaineers are to keep pace. When the model has favored a side this strongly in past games of similar probability shape, that side won 86 percent of the time. For West Virginia to pull the upset, it would need Hawkins and Cook to significantly exceed their projections while Texas Tech's offense sputters below expectations—an unlikely reversal from what the 50,000 simulations produced.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WVU ML
WVU +410
+1.4% EV
19.1% leads · push 5.1%
FanDuel ↗
1H TTU ML
TTU -500
-2.0% EV
75.8% leads · push 5.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
WVU +10.5 -110
+0.4% EV
52.8% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
TTU -10.5 +102
-2.3% EV
47.2% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 34.5 +102
-1.9% EV
47.6% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 34.5 -110
+0.0% EV
52.4% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | TTU | EV | WVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -17.5 | -105 | -3.1% | -115 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | +100 | -1.9% | -122 | -2.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17 | -108 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17 | -112 | -2.7% | -108 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | -1.6% | -105 | -2.9% |
| Book | TTU | EV | WVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -1.2% | +600 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -800 | -0.6% | +570 | -9.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -800 | -0.6% | +600 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -950 | -1.5% | +600 | -7.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -800 | -0.6% | +500 | -13.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 65.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -112 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 65.5 | -114 | -1.4% | -106 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 65.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -108 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 66 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 65.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech 88% to beat West Virginia (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas Tech a 88% chance of beating West Virginia, against 12% for West Virginia. Texas Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
West Virginia (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas Tech (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.5–2.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 39% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 6.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Texas Tech | 9.5–2.5 | 13% | 39% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How West Virginia and Texas Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
West Virginia have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Texas Tech have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
West Virginia are 52-27 as favourite and 26-50 as underdog, and 37-45 on the road (45% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WVU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 52-27 | — |
| As underdog | 26-50 | — |
| At home | 46-37 | — |
| On the road | 37-45 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →