Duke vs NC State Prediction (Nov 7): Duke 61%

Q: Who will win Duke vs NC State?

AccuScore's simulation makes Duke the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Q: Will NC State beat Duke?

AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 39% chance of beating Duke, against 61% for Duke. NC State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

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NCAAF • Sat, Nov 7, 17:30

DUKE

Duke6-0

NCSU

NC State4-0

Preview

NC State quarterback CJ Bailey is projected for 190 passing yards, while Duke's Nate Sheppard projects to rush for 75—a gap that reflects where the model sees this game decided. The Wolfpack need to tighten that ground game and keep pace through the air to pull off the upset; anything else runs toward a Duke victory.

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Season outlook

Duke (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

NC State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Team	Projected record	Division title	Playoffs
Duke	7.5–4.5	<1%	2%
NC State	5.7–6.3	0%	<1%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →

AccuScore's simulation makes Duke 61% to beat NC State (39%).

Projection updated Nov 6, 7:45 PM ET

Who will win Duke vs NC State?

AccuScore's simulation makes Duke the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will NC State beat Duke?

AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 39% chance of beating Duke, against 61% for Duke. NC State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Duke and NC State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

DukeWWLLW

Oct 31vs Boston CollegeW 47–2
Oct 23at VirginiaW 19–16
Oct 17vs North CarolinaL 20–24
Oct 10at Georgia TechL 25–28
Sep 26vs William & MaryW 62–7

Duke have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).

NC StateWLLWW

Oct 31vs CaliforniaW 31–10
Oct 23at StanfordL 28–31
Oct 10vs Wake ForestL 14–38
Oct 3vs LouisvilleW 31–28
Sep 26vs App StateW 41–31

NC State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 4 times since 2013: Duke 3, NC State 1. The last meeting, on Sep 20, 2025, finished NC State 33, Duke 45.

Sep 20, 2025NCSU 33 – 45 DUKE
Nov 9, 2024DUKE 29 – 19 NCSU
Oct 17, 2020DUKE 20 – 31 NCSU
Nov 9, 2013NCSU 20 – 38 DUKE

Every Duke vs NC State meeting →

Betting trends

Duke are 47-25 as favourite and 33-56 as underdog, and 41-43 on the road (49% of 84 games, 2011–2026).

NC State are 65-19 as favourite and 20-54 as underdog, and 57-31 at home (65% of 88 games, 2011–2026).

Record	DUKE	NCSU
As favourite	47-25	65-19
As underdog	33-56	20-54
At home	44-40	57-31
On the road	41-43	31-47

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →