Louisville
5-0
Georgia Tech
2-0
Win Probability
Louisville travels to Atlanta as a decisive favourite over Georgia Tech, a lean backed by 50,000 simulations. The simulation turns on passing volume: Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz is projected for 200 yards, matching Georgia Tech's Alberto Mendoza, but the Yellow Jackets' receiving corps lags markedly behind—Jordan Allen at 45 yards and Dalen Penson at 30—while Louisville's Tre Richardson projects for 55. AccuScore's model favoured sides this heavily in 1,760 prior games and won 86% of them. For Georgia Tech to pull the upset, its run game would need to carry far more of the load than the simulation expects, with Trelain Maddox and Justice Haynes combining to chip in only 55 projected yards against Isaac Brown's 80 for the visitors.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LOU ML
LOU -400
-2.2% EV
71.7% leads · push 5.9%
BetMGM ↗
1H GT ML
GT +340
+2.2% EV
22.4% leads · push 5.9%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
LOU -7.5 -115
-3.3% EV
50.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
GT +7.5 -105
-1.2% EV
50.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 31.5 -107
-4.1% EV
47.4% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 31.5 -110
+0.2% EV
52.6% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | GT | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -108 | -3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -109 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Book | GT | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +490 | +0.7% | -675 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +470 | -1.0% | -650 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +500 | +1.6% | -650 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +475 | -0.6% | -675 | -2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +475 | -0.6% | -750 | -3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 62.5 | -108 | -2.3% | -112 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 62.5 | -108 | -2.3% | -112 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 62.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -112 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 62 | -106 | -0.7% | -114 | -3.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 62.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 83% to beat Georgia Tech (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Tech a 17% chance of beating Louisville, against 83% for Louisville. Georgia Tech are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisville (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Tech (2-6 so far) project to finish 2.6–9.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 7.5–4.5 | <1% | 7% |
| Georgia Tech | 2.6–9.4 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Louisville and Georgia Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisville have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Georgia Tech have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Louisville are 76-30 as favourite and 17-40 as underdog, and 45-39 on the road (54% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | — |
| As underdog | 17-40 | — |
| At home | 54-33 | — |
| On the road | 45-39 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →