NCAAF
Florida State
3-0
Boston College
4-0
Win Probability
Florida State travels to Boston College as a clear favourite in the simulation. Ashton Daniels is projected for 190 passing yards, while Mason McKenzie sits at 170, a gap that reflects where the model sees the game being won. Bo MacCormack III is forecast for 50 rushing yards—modest production that underscores the simulation's view of the visitor's control. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 66 percent of 2,499 graded matchups. Boston College would need to generate explosive plays through Javarius Green and its secondary receivers to shift the trajectory.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H FSU ML
FSU -185
-0.2% EV
59.8% leads · push 7.4%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H BC ML
BC +164
-3.0% EV
32.8% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
FSU -3.5 -110
-0.5% EV
51.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
BC +3.5 -106
-3.2% EV
48.1% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -108
+0.9% EV
52.8% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 -106
-4.2% EV
47.2% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | BC | EV | FSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | -6.8% | -115 | +2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +6.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -108 | +1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +6.5 | -113 | -6.0% | -106 | +1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | -6.8% | -115 | +2.1% |
| Book | BC | EV | FSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +200 | -4.5% | -245 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +184 | -7.0% | -220 | +0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +195 | -5.3% | -235 | -0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +200 | -4.5% | -245 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +195 | -5.3% | -230 | +0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -106 | -0.4% | -114 | -4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52.5 | -102 | +0.5% | -118 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.3%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 70% to beat Boston College (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston College a 30% chance of beating Florida State, against 70% for Florida State. Boston College are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Florida State (3-5 so far) project to finish 5.2–6.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boston College (4-4 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 5.2–6.8 | 0% | <1% |
| Boston College | 4.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Florida State and Boston College come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Boston College have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Florida State 10, Boston College 2. The last meeting, on Sep 2, 2024, finished Boston College 28, Florida State 13.
Florida State are 84-27 as favourite and 11-39 as underdog, and 37-40 on the road (48% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Boston College are 29-22 as favourite and 30-74 as underdog, and 33-49 at home (40% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-27 | 29-22 |
| As underdog | 11-39 | 30-74 |
| At home | 59-31 | 33-49 |
| On the road | 37-40 | 30-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →