Michigan State
2-0
Michigan
5-0
Win Probability
Michigan State travels to face Michigan in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the host. Tommy Carr projects to 110 passing yards for Michigan, while Chrishon McCray and Fredrick Moore each figure for 25 receiving yards in Michigan State's passing game, illustrating a stark gap in offensive volume. The game turns on Michigan State's ability to generate yards through the air despite the projected disparity; AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 1,760 past games and won 86% of them. For Michigan State to pull off the upset, it would need McCray or Moore to substantially exceed their projections while forcing Michigan into an uncharacteristically quiet offensive performance.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MSU ML
MSU +320
-0.3% EV
22.0% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
1H MICH ML
MICH -400
-2.1% EV
70.8% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MSU +6.5 +108
-2.1% EV
46.0% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
MICH -6.5 -130
-2.3% EV
54.0% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
O 20.5 +104
+3.3% EV
52.3% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 20.5 -118
-5.9% EV
47.7% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | MICH | EV | MSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.2% | -110 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.2% | -110 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.2% | -108 | +0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -13.5 | -108 | -3.8% | -112 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.2% | -110 | -0.4% |
| Book | MICH | EV | MSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -550 | -2.1% | +410 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -580 | -2.5% | +420 | -0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -550 | -2.1% | +425 | -0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -590 | -2.6% | +425 | -0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -650 | -3.2% | +425 | -0.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -112 | +1.6% | -108 | -6.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -108 | -6.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -109 | -6.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 52.0%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan 81% to beat Michigan State (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan a 81% chance of beating Michigan State, against 19% for Michigan State. Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Michigan State (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.4–8.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.7–5.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 3.4–8.6 | 0% | 0% |
| Michigan | 6.7–5.3 | 0% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Michigan State and Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Michigan are 112-18 as favourite and 9-34 as underdog, and 86-19 at home (82% of 105 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 112-18 |
| As underdog | — | 9-34 |
| At home | — | 86-19 |
| On the road | — | 39-37 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →