NCAAF
Iowa
6-0
Northwestern
6-0
Win Probability
Two unbeaten teams meet in the Big Ten with Northwestern hosting Iowa, and the simulation leans slightly toward the Wildcats. Aidan Chiles is projected for 170 passing yards against an Iowa defense that will ask Hank Brown to manage just 140 through the air, a gap that hints at where the game's control may lie. Xavier Williams figures to see heavy work in the rushing attack with 40 projected yards, but Northwestern's ground game is expected to be more distributed, with Caleb Komolafe accounting for 60 yards. AccuScore's model has favored one side by this margin in 2,687 graded games, and that side won 55 percent of them. For Iowa to pull the upset, the Hawkeyes will need to tighten the passing game and impose their will on the line of scrimmage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H IOWA ML
IOWA +114
-0.5% EV
42.7% leads · push 7.8%
DraftKings ↗
1H NU ML
NU -124
-1.4% EV
49.5% leads · push 7.8%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
IOWA +0.5 -105
-0.8% EV
50.4% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
NU -0.5 -110
-2.7% EV
49.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -110
-0.8% EV
51.6% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 -104
-2.5% EV
48.4% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | NU | EV | IOWA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -112 | -3.8% | -108 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -115 | -4.4% | -105 | -0.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2.5 | -111 | -3.6% | -105 | -0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -105 | -2.4% | -115 | -2.1% |
| Book | NU | EV | IOWA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -1.7% | +114 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -137 | -2.0% | +114 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -135 | -1.7% | +110 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -137 | -2.0% | +116 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -130 | -0.9% | +110 | -3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -104 | -1.3% | -118 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -114 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern 56% to beat Iowa (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northwestern a 56% chance of beating Iowa, against 45% for Iowa. Northwestern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iowa (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–3.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northwestern (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 8.4–3.6 | 1% | 20% |
| Northwestern | 7.8–4.2 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Iowa and Northwestern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Iowa have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Northwestern have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Iowa 8, Northwestern 5. The last meeting, on Oct 26, 2024, finished Northwestern 14, Iowa 40.
Iowa are 84-21 as favourite and 16-40 as underdog, and 45-34 on the road (57% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Northwestern are 46-17 as favourite and 32-60 as underdog, and 44-45 at home (49% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | IOWA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-21 | 46-17 |
| As underdog | 16-40 | 32-60 |
| At home | 60-32 | 44-45 |
| On the road | 45-34 | 36-38 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →