NCAAF
Oregon
5-0
Ohio State
6-0
Win Probability
When unbeaten Oregon travels to face unbeaten Ohio State, AccuScore's simulation decisively favors the Buckeyes. The game turns on Ohio State's ability to establish the run: Bo Jackson is projected for 65 rushing yards, while Oregon's ground game barely registers, with Brandon Smith expected to manage just 20 yards. Dylan Raiola projects for 170 passing yards against a defense that will likely force the Ducks into one-dimensional play. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 76 percent of 2,201 graded contests. For Oregon to pull the upset, the Ducks would need to move the ball through the air early and often, leaning on receivers like Dakorien Moore to exceed his modest 45-yard projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ORE ML
ORE +195
-4.0% EV
28.8% leads · push 7.1%
DraftKings ↗
1H OSU ML
OSU -225
-0.2% EV
64.1% leads · push 7.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | OSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -112 | +1.8% | -108 | -6.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -8 | -108 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Book | OSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -305 | -1.5% | +245 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -285 | -0.7% | +230 | -5.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -300 | -1.3% | +240 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -295 | -1.1% | +240 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -290 | -0.9% | +240 | -4.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +3.1% | -115 | -7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +3.1% | -115 | -7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -115 | +3.2% | -105 | -7.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45 | -110 | +3.2% | -110 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 44.5 | -115 | +3.2% | -105 | -7.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State 73% to beat Oregon (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ohio State a 73% chance of beating Oregon, against 27% for Oregon. Ohio State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oregon (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ohio State (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 57% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 7.6–4.4 | <1% | 12% |
| Ohio State | 9.0–3.0 | 18% | 57% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oregon and Ohio State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oregon have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Ohio State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Oregon 2, Ohio State 1. The last meeting, on Jan 1, 2025, finished Ohio State 41, Oregon 21.
Oregon are 104-24 as favourite and 13-18 as underdog, and 51-26 on the road (66% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Ohio State are 139-16 as favourite and 9-6 as underdog, and 99-12 at home (89% of 111 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ORE | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 104-24 | 139-16 |
| As underdog | 13-18 | 9-6 |
| At home | 77-18 | 99-12 |
| On the road | 51-26 | 60-13 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →