NCAAF
Maryland
2-0
Purdue
3-0
Win Probability
Maryland travels to face Purdue in a matchup the simulation clearly favours the home side to win. Ryan Browne is projected for 210 passing yards while Malik Washington reaches the same mark, but the gap widens in the ground game where Fame Ijeboi projects 65 rushing yards against DeJuan Williams's 45. Purdue's efficiency advantage drives this lean: in 2,499 graded games where the model favoured one side this strongly, that side won 66 per cent of the time. Maryland would need to impose its pace and limit explosive plays downfield to steal this one on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MD ML
MD +164
+0.6% EV
35.4% leads · push 7.8%
DraftKings ↗
1H PUR ML
PUR -185
-2.3% EV
56.8% leads · push 7.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | PUR | EV | MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -108 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5.5 | -108 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -108 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | -0.3% | -115 | -4.1% |
| Book | PUR | EV | MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -218 | -2.2% | +180 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -210 | -1.6% | +172 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | -1.6% | +175 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -218 | -2.2% | +180 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -195 | -0.4% | +165 | -4.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -108 | -0.8% | -112 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 57.5 | -108 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -0.1% | -114 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue 66% to beat Maryland (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 66% chance of beating Maryland, against 34% for Maryland. Purdue are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Maryland (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.0–9.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Maryland and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Maryland have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Purdue have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2016: Maryland 1, Purdue 2. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2022, finished Purdue 31, Maryland 29.
Maryland are 35-21 as favourite and 18-74 as underdog, and 24-50 on the road (32% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
Purdue are 29-19 as favourite and 26-83 as underdog, and 34-54 at home (39% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 35-21 | 29-19 |
| As underdog | 18-74 | 26-83 |
| At home | 30-52 | 34-54 |
| On the road | 24-50 | 21-55 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →