Penn State
4-0
Washington
5-0
Win Probability
Washington hosts an undefeated Penn State team in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. The game hinges on which passing attack can execute: Rocco Becht projects to 180 yards while Elijah Brown is expected to reach just 120, a significant gap that favors Penn State's ability to move the ball. On the ground, Brian Bonner Jr. is projected for 55 rushing yards compared to Carson Hansen at 55, so the advantage there is even. AccuScore's model has favored the home side in games shaped like this one 55% of the time across 2,687 graded matchups. For Penn State to pull the upset on the road, its passing efficiency would need to translate into points at a rate Washington's more conservative air game cannot match.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H PSU ML
PSU +114
-0.4% EV
42.4% leads · push 8.5%
DraftKings ↗
1H WASH ML
WASH -130
-2.3% EV
49.1% leads · push 8.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
PSU +0.5 -108
-1.0% EV
50.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
WASH -0.5 -110
-3.2% EV
49.1% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -110
-0.8% EV
51.5% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 -105
-2.7% EV
48.5% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | WASH | EV | PSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -108 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2 | -110 | -1.3% | -108 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2 | -107 | -0.7% | -113 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -115 | -2.9% |
| Book | WASH | EV | PSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -1.6% | +114 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -130 | -0.8% | +108 | -3.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -130 | -0.8% | +110 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -132 | -1.1% | +112 | -2.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -130 | -0.8% | +110 | -3.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -118 | +0.5% | -102 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -104 | +1.3% | -118 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -102 | +1.8% | -118 | -5.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 44.5 | -103 | +1.5% | -116 | -5.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 44.5 | -105 | +1.1% | -115 | -5.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington 56% to beat Penn State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington a 56% chance of beating Penn State, against 44% for Penn State. Washington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Penn State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 6.8–5.2 | 0% | 1% |
| Washington | 6.6–5.4 | 0% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Penn State and Washington come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Penn State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Washington have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Penn State 2, Washington 0. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2024, finished Washington 6, Penn State 35.
Penn State are 93-26 as favourite and 12-35 as underdog, and 43-35 on the road (55% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Washington are 84-23 as favourite and 13-39 as underdog, and 64-25 at home (72% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 93-26 | 84-23 |
| As underdog | 12-35 | 13-39 |
| At home | 72-28 | 64-25 |
| On the road | 43-35 | 35-42 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →