NCAAF
Rutgers
2-0
Wisconsin
5-0
Win Probability
Wisconsin hosts Rutgers in a matchup shaped decisively in the home team's favor. The simulation leans heavily toward the Badgers, who project to control this game through the air and ground: Colton Joseph is expected to throw for 170 yards while Abu Sama III rushes for 55, compared to AJ Surace managing just 110 passing yards. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other games, AccuScore's favored side won all eight. The game turns on whether Rutgers can generate offensive rhythm against Wisconsin's projection; for the Scarlet Knights to pull the upset, Antwan Raymond would need to exceed his 50-yard rushing projection significantly while the Wisconsin passing attack underperforms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H RUTG ML
RUTG +550
+4.6% EV
15.9% leads · push 5.7%
DraftKings ↗
1H WIS ML
WIS -650
-1.9% EV
78.4% leads · push 5.7%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
RUTG +10.5 -110
+0.8% EV
53.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
WIS -10.5 -105
-4.4% EV
46.7% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -112
-0.5% EV
52.3% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -104
-3.2% EV
47.7% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | WIS | EV | RUTG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | -118 | -2.4% | -104 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -18 | -110 | -2.4% | -108 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -18.5 | -104 | -2.8% | -115 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| Book | WIS | EV | RUTG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1050 | -1.2% | +675 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1400 | -2.3% | +810 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1000 | -1.0% | +700 | -6.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1000 | -1.0% | +650 | -9.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1200 | -1.7% | +700 | -6.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -108 | +1.3% | -112 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -108 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45.5 | -112 | +0.4% | -108 | -5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 89% to beat Rutgers (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 89% chance of beating Rutgers, against 11% for Rutgers. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rutgers (2-6 so far) project to finish 2.9–9.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wisconsin (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Rutgers and Wisconsin come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rutgers have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Wisconsin have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2014: Rutgers 0, Wisconsin 5. The last meeting, on Oct 12, 2024, finished Wisconsin 42, Rutgers 7.
Rutgers are 31-14 as favourite and 21-86 as underdog, and 26-53 on the road (33% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Wisconsin are 97-30 as favourite and 14-25 as underdog, and 73-25 at home (74% of 98 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | RUTG | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-14 | 97-30 |
| As underdog | 21-86 | 14-25 |
| At home | 29-53 | 73-25 |
| On the road | 26-53 | 43-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →