NCAAF
Charlotte
1-0
UAB
4-0
Win Probability
Charlotte travels to face UAB in a matchup where the simulation favors the host decisively. Ryder Burton is projected for 180 passing yards against a Charlotte defense that will send Conner Harrell onto the field with just 150 yards in the model's estimate. The game turns on whether Charlotte can establish Henry Rutledge in the running game—he's projected for 55 rushing yards—and create explosive plays downfield; if the 49 Blazers contain that ground attack, the visitor's path to victory narrows sharply. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 76 percent of the time across 2,201 graded contests.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CLT ML
CLT +220
-2.9% EV
27.0% leads · push 7.9%
Caesars ↗
1H UAB ML
UAB -235
+0.4% EV
65.1% leads · push 7.9%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CLT +5.5 -108
-2.9% EV
48.9% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
UAB -5.5 -108
-0.8% EV
51.1% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -115
+3.5% EV
57.2% over
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +102
-6.8% EV
42.8% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | UAB | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -8.5 | -105 | +3.5% | -115 | -7.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -8.5 | -108 | +2.8% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -109 | -6.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| Book | UAB | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -340 | -1.3% | +270 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -1.1% | +265 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -325 | -0.8% | +270 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -345 | -1.4% | +275 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -340 | -1.3% | +270 | -4.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -108 | -6.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes UAB 75% to beat Charlotte (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UAB the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAB a 75% chance of beating Charlotte, against 25% for Charlotte. UAB are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Charlotte (1-7 so far) project to finish 1.7–10.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAB (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.5–6.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Charlotte and UAB come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Charlotte have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
UAB have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Charlotte 2, UAB 2. The last meeting, on Nov 30, 2024, finished UAB 27, Charlotte 29.
Charlotte are 7-3 as favourite and 20-71 as underdog, and 13-45 on the road (22% of 58 games, 2015–2026).
UAB are 33-21 as favourite and 20-55 as underdog, and 35-25 at home (58% of 60 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CLT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 7-3 | 33-21 |
| As underdog | 20-71 | 20-55 |
| At home | 16-34 | 35-25 |
| On the road | 13-45 | 21-57 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →