Rice
1-0
North Texas
6-0
Win Probability
Rice travels to face North Texas, where the simulation favors the home side decisively. North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson is projected for 230 passing yards, with running back Jahiem White adding 95 yards on the ground—a balanced attack that Rice's defense must contain. Rice's offense, led by passer Gael Ochoa, is projected for just 90 yards through the air, which captures the fundamental mismatch. When AccuScore's model has favored one side this strongly across similar games, that side won 86 percent of the time. For Rice to pull the upset, their ground game would need to significantly outperform the projection of 55 yards from Tyvonn Byars while holding North Texas well below plan.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H RICE ML
RICE +390
-4.6% EV
17.4% leads · push 5.4%
FanDuel ↗
1H UNT ML
UNT -450
-0.1% EV
77.1% leads · push 5.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
RICE +9.5 -108
-5.6% EV
46.2% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
UNT -9.5 -108
+1.9% EV
53.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 33.5 -110
-0.2% EV
52.2% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 33.5 -106
-3.6% EV
47.8% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | UNT | EV | RICE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | +2.1% | -110 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -16.5 | -108 | +2.6% | -112 | -7.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -16 | -108 | +3.9% | -110 | -7.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | +2.1% | -109 | -6.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -15.5 | -115 | +3.6% | -105 | -8.3% |
| Book | UNT | EV | RICE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -800 | +0.2% | +550 | -14.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -880 | -0.3% | +590 | -12.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -750 | +0.5% | +575 | -13.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -850 | -0.2% | +550 | -14.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -800 | +0.2% | +500 | -17.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 64.5 | -112 | +0.3% | -108 | -4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 64.5 | -118 | -0.9% | -104 | -4.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -108 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 64.5 | -112 | +0.3% | -108 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 65.5 | -105 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas 89% to beat Rice (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Texas a 89% chance of beating Rice, against 11% for Rice. North Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rice (1-7 so far) project to finish 2.0–10.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Texas (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | 2.0–10.0 | 0% | 0% |
| North Texas | 8.9–3.1 | 44% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Rice and North Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rice have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
North Texas have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2013: Rice 3, North Texas 7. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished North Texas 56, Rice 24.
Rice are 30-16 as favourite and 22-86 as underdog, and 22-63 on the road (26% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
North Texas are 48-17 as favourite and 25-66 as underdog, and 47-28 at home (63% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | RICE | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 30-16 | 48-17 |
| As underdog | 22-86 | 25-66 |
| At home | 33-43 | 47-28 |
| On the road | 22-63 | 28-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →