Hawai'i
2-0
UTEP
1-0
Win Probability
Hawai'i travels to face UTEP with the simulation strongly favoring the Rainbow Warriors. In 2,201 past games where AccuScore leaned this decisively toward one side, that side won 76% of the time. The matchup hinges on whether UTEP can generate enough offense to stay within range; across eight statistically similar games, the favored side won seven. For UTEP to pull the upset at home, the Miners would need to keep pace with a Hawai'i team already undefeated through two weeks.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UTEP | EV | HAW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | -0.6% | -322 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +257 | -1.8% | -316 | -1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Hawai'i 73% to beat UTEP (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Hawai'i the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UTEP a 27% chance of beating Hawai'i, against 73% for Hawai'i. UTEP are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UTEP (1-7 so far) project to finish 2.0–10.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 2.0–10.0 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Hawai'i and UTEP come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Hawai'i have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
UTEP have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Hawai'i are 27-13 as favourite and 23-85 as underdog, and 21-62 on the road (25% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
UTEP are 22-10 as favourite and 12-99 as underdog, and 23-44 at home (34% of 67 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | HAW | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 27-13 | 22-10 |
| As underdog | 23-85 | 12-99 |
| At home | 34-45 | 23-44 |
| On the road | 21-62 | 13-72 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →