Northern Illinois
0-0
San José State
4-0
Win Probability
When Northern Illinois travels to face San José State, the simulation favours the host decisively. The Spartans' passing attack will centre on Luke Weaver, projected for 160 yards, while Viliami Teu anchors the ground game at 60 yards. Northern Illinois counters with DeAree Rogers, who projects for 45 receiving yards in what shapes as a battle of complementary offences. San José State's ability to sustain drives will determine whether this stays close; in 2,201 games where the model leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 76% of the time. For Northern Illinois to pull the upset, it would need explosive plays from its receiving corps to offset a significant disadvantage in offensive efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H NIU ML
NIU +270
-0.2% EV
25.1% leads · push 6.9%
DraftKings ↗
1H SJSU ML
SJSU -325
-2.1% EV
68.0% leads · push 6.9%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
NIU +7.5 -125
-0.4% EV
55.1% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
SJSU -7.5 +100
-5.1% EV
44.9% covers
theScore Bet ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -118
-3.9% EV
49.9% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 +100
+0.1% EV
50.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | SJSU | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | -0.6% | -115 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -115 | +0.7% | -104 | -5.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -11 | -110 | +0.1% | -108 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -11.5 | -101 | +0.4% | -118 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -11.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.9% |
| Book | SJSU | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -0.9% | +320 | -5.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -430 | -1.3% | +330 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -425 | -1.2% | +333 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -420 | -1.1% | +320 | -5.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -450 | -1.7% | +340 | -3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -4.7% | -115 | +0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -106 | -4.9% | -114 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -4.7% | -112 | +0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | -5.3% | -112 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -105 | -7.2% | -115 | +2.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.3%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State 79% to beat Northern Illinois (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 79% chance of beating Northern Illinois, against 21% for Northern Illinois. San José State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Illinois (0-8 so far) project to finish 1.3–10.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 1.3–10.7 | 0% | 0% |
| San José State | 5.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Northern Illinois and San José State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Illinois have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San José State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Northern Illinois are 64-23 as favourite and 22-49 as underdog, and 51-44 on the road (54% of 95 games, 2011–2026).
San José State are 32-17 as favourite and 18-71 as underdog, and 30-36 at home (45% of 66 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NIU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-23 | 32-17 |
| As underdog | 22-49 | 18-71 |
| At home | 40-34 | 30-36 |
| On the road | 51-44 | 24-57 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →