NCAAF • Sat, Nov 7, 19:30
App State hosts Georgia State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Ayden Pereira projects for 150 passing yards as Georgia State's primary offensive engine, while App State counters with Malachi Singleton expected to reach 200 yards through the air. The decisive factor is App State's ground game: Jaquari Lewis is projected for 60 rushing yards against a Georgia State defense that will give up meaningful yardage on the ground.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes App State 66% to beat Georgia State (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes App State the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives App State a 66% chance of beating Georgia State, against 34% for Georgia State. App State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Georgia State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
App State (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State | 5.8–6.2 | <1% | 0% |
| App State | 7.6–4.4 | 9% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia State and App State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
App State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2014: Georgia State 0, App State 11. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished App State 41, Georgia State 20.
Georgia State are 22-11 as favourite and 19-75 as underdog, and 19-52 on the road (27% of 71 games, 2013–2026).
App State are 67-20 as favourite and 13-19 as underdog, and 45-14 at home (76% of 59 games, 2014–2026).
| Record | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 22-11 | 67-20 |
| As underdog | 19-75 | 13-19 |
| At home | 23-41 | 45-14 |
| On the road | 19-52 | 39-28 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →