NCAAF
UL Monroe
1-0
Arkansas State
4-0
Win Probability
Arkansas State hosts UL Monroe in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Red Wolves. Trey Owens projects to 200 passing yards for the hosts, while Aidan Armenta is expected to manage 170 in a visitors' offense that will struggle to keep pace. The game turns on whether UL Monroe can generate consistent offensive pressure; Owens' passing volume and Solomon Baggett's 60 rushing yards suggest Arkansas State will dictate tempo and field position. In similar spots over 1,760 graded games, the favored side won 86 percent. For the Warhawks to escape, they would need their pass catchers—JP Coulter, Marcellus Jackson and Nic Trujillo all projected at 25 yards—to sustain drives the model expects them to stall.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ULM ML
ULM +370
+0.9% EV
20.3% leads · push 6.2%
DraftKings ↗
1H ARST ML
ARST -425
-1.5% EV
73.5% leads · push 6.2%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ULM +8.5 -110
-0.4% EV
52.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ARST -8.5 -105
-3.1% EV
48.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -105
-3.3% EV
47.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -112
-0.7% EV
52.1% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | ARST | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -108 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| Book | ARST | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -700 | -2.2% | +500 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -650 | -1.7% | +480 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -650 | -1.7% | +500 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -750 | -2.6% | +500 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -750 | -2.6% | +475 | -3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -3.1% | -112 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -114 | -1.8% | -106 | -2.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State 84% to beat UL Monroe (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas State a 84% chance of beating UL Monroe, against 16% for UL Monroe. Arkansas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UL Monroe (1-7 so far) project to finish 1.8–10.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe | 1.8–10.2 | 0% | 0% |
| Arkansas State | 6.1–5.9 | 5% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UL Monroe and Arkansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UL Monroe have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Arkansas State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: UL Monroe 1, Arkansas State 12. The last meeting, on Sep 27, 2025, finished Arkansas State 16, UL Monroe 28.
UL Monroe are 23-16 as favourite and 26-85 as underdog, and 24-72 on the road (25% of 96 games, 2011–2026).
Arkansas State are 60-23 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 45-25 at home (64% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 23-16 | 60-23 |
| As underdog | 26-85 | 19-52 |
| At home | 26-37 | 45-25 |
| On the road | 24-72 | 40-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →