Marshall
5-0
Georgia Southern
4-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Marshall travels to face undefeated Georgia Southern in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Max Johnson's projected 200 passing yards for Georgia Southern far exceed Carlos Del Rio-Wilson's 130 for Marshall, reflecting the gap between the offences. Georgia Southern's Tyrese Woodgett is projected for 50 rushing yards while Marshall's Judah Price manages 45, a difference that compounds across the game. In games where AccuScore's lean has been this strong, the favoured side won 76 per cent of the time. For Marshall to pull off the upset, its defence would need to force Johnson into a far less productive afternoon than the model anticipates.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MRSH ML
MRSH +215
+0.3% EV
29.8% leads · push 7.0%
DraftKings ↗
1H GASO ML
GASO -235
-1.4% EV
63.3% leads · push 7.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MRSH +5.5 -107
-0.9% EV
50.8% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
GASO -5.5 -110
-3.0% EV
49.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -105
-4.3% EV
46.8% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -110
+0.7% EV
53.2% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | GASO | EV | MRSH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -108 | -3.3% | -112 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -108 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -8.5 | -112 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Book | GASO | EV | MRSH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -340 | -2.8% | +270 | -0.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -2.6% | +270 | -0.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -350 | -3.1% | +275 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -360 | -3.4% | +280 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -340 | -2.8% | +270 | -0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -6.0% | -106 | +1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -108 | +1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -5.6% | -112 | +0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -115 | -0.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 27.0%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern 73% to beat Marshall (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Southern a 73% chance of beating Marshall, against 27% for Marshall. Georgia Southern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Marshall (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.9–5.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Southern (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 6.9–5.1 | 1% | <1% |
| Georgia Southern | 6.6–5.4 | 26% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Marshall and Georgia Southern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Marshall have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Georgia Southern have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2022: Marshall 1, Georgia Southern 2. The last meeting, on Nov 29, 2025, finished Georgia Southern 24, Marshall 19.
Marshall are 72-29 as favourite and 17-36 as underdog, and 45-44 on the road (51% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Georgia Southern are 38-9 as favourite and 19-48 as underdog, and 31-21 at home (60% of 52 games, 2014–2026).
| Record | MRSH | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 72-29 | 38-9 |
| As underdog | 17-36 | 19-48 |
| At home | 53-24 | 31-21 |
| On the road | 45-44 | 32-41 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →