NCAAF
South Alabama
4-0
Louisiana
5-0
Win Probability
Louisiana hosts South Alabama in a matchup between undefeated teams, and the simulation decisively favors the home side. Lunch Winfield projects for 200 passing yards while Jared Hollins is expected to manage 180, a gap that reflects Louisiana's offensive advantage in how the model sees this game play out. The contest hinges on Louisiana's ability to control the line of scrimmage: Steven Blanco is projected for 50 rushing yards against Keenan Phillips's similar 50, but Louisiana's supporting cast figures to move the chains more consistently. On games with this probability shape across other matchups, the favored side won at a 76% clip. For South Alabama to pull off the upset, its defense would need to generate pressure early and force Lunch Winfield into mistakes that haven't materialized through five games.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H USA ML
USA +200
+1.8% EV
32.2% leads · push 7.0%
Caesars ↗
1H UL ML
UL -225
-2.6% EV
60.8% leads · push 7.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
USA +4.5 -108
-0.1% EV
51.8% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
UL -4.5 -108
-3.6% EV
48.1% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -102
+2.2% EV
52.7% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -110
-4.9% EV
47.3% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | UL | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7 | -115 | -0.2% | -105 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | +0.4% | -115 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7 | -112 | +0.4% | -105 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7 | -117 | -0.6% | -104 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | +1.6% | -120 | -5.6% |
| Book | UL | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -298 | -2.6% | +240 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -285 | -2.0% | +235 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -285 | -2.0% | +230 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -310 | -3.0% | +240 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -275 | -1.6% | +225 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | +3.2% | -115 | -7.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | +4.2% | -108 | -8.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | +4.2% | -105 | -8.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57 | -110 | +3.4% | -110 | -7.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | +3.2% | -115 | -7.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana 71% to beat South Alabama (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana a 71% chance of beating South Alabama, against 29% for South Alabama. Louisiana are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Alabama (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 6.3–5.7 | 2% | <1% |
| Louisiana | 7.4–4.6 | 5% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Alabama and Louisiana come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Alabama have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Louisiana have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2012: South Alabama 4, Louisiana 9. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22.
South Alabama are 31-22 as favourite and 14-74 as underdog, and 21-61 on the road (26% of 82 games, 2012–2026).
Louisiana are 62-20 as favourite and 32-44 as underdog, and 52-24 at home (68% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-22 | 62-20 |
| As underdog | 14-74 | 32-44 |
| At home | 29-38 | 52-24 |
| On the road | 21-61 | 48-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →