NCAAF
Liberty
7-0
New Mexico State
3-0
Win Probability
Liberty travels to face New Mexico State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Flames. Deshawn Purdie projects for 160 passing yards against an Aggies defense that AccuScore expects to allow Adam Damante just 140 yards through the air, suggesting Liberty's passing game will operate comfortably. The game hinges on New Mexico State's ability to generate rushing yards—James Jones is projected for 55—against a Liberty front that AccuScore expects to limit Kam Davis to 65 on the ground. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 86 of 100. For the Aggies to pull the upset, they would need their ground game to significantly exceed projections while holding Liberty's passing attack well below expectations.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LIB ML
LIB -550
-2.1% EV
76.4% leads · push 5.5%
BetMGM ↗
1H NMSU ML
NMSU +460
+3.3% EV
18.1% leads · push 5.5%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | NMSU | EV | LIB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +16.5 | -102 | -1.9% | -118 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +17.5 | -122 | -2.8% | +100 | -1.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +16.5 | -105 | -2.6% | -112 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +16.5 | -103 | -2.2% | -116 | -2.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +17.5 | -120 | -2.5% | +100 | -1.8% |
| Book | NMSU | EV | LIB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +575 | -5.8% | -850 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +660 | -0.2% | -1000 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +600 | -4.1% | -800 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +575 | -5.8% | -850 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +550 | -7.4% | -900 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -1.8% | -112 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 46.5 | -109 | -2.0% | -112 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty 87% to beat New Mexico State (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico State a 13% chance of beating Liberty, against 87% for Liberty. New Mexico State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Liberty (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.3–1.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.6–7.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 10.3–1.7 | 84% | 3% |
| New Mexico State | 4.6–7.4 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Liberty and New Mexico State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Liberty have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
New Mexico State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2018: Liberty 6, New Mexico State 1. The last meeting, on Oct 14, 2025, finished New Mexico State 27, Liberty 30.
Liberty are 29-12 as favourite and 9-12 as underdog, and 20-18 on the road (53% of 38 games, 2018–2026).
New Mexico State are 16-8 as favourite and 14-103 as underdog, and 17-46 at home (27% of 63 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LIB | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 29-12 | 16-8 |
| As underdog | 9-12 | 14-103 |
| At home | 23-8 | 17-46 |
| On the road | 20-18 | 16-71 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →