Delaware
4-0
Kennesaw State
2-0
Win Probability
Delaware travels to Kennesaw State in a matchup between undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the visiting Fightin' Blue Hens slightly. Rickie Collins projects for 200 passing yards against a Delaware defence that will ask Tyler Bell to work efficiently with just 130 yards through the air. The game likely turns on Kennesaw State's ground game: Boogie Woods III is projected for only 50 rushing yards, a constraint that could force the hosts into predictable passing situations. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time across 2,687 graded contests. Kennesaw State would need to establish consistent run support and limit Delaware's receivers—Sean Wilson projects for 45 yards—to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DEL ML
DEL -108
+0.5% EV
48.3% leads · push 8.0%
BetMGM ↗
1H KENN ML
KENN +100
-2.2% EV
43.8% leads · push 8.0%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
DEL -0.5 +102
-1.3% EV
48.3% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
KENN +0.5 -120
-2.6% EV
51.7% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -105
-3.8% EV
47.3% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -110
+0.3% EV
52.7% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | KENN | EV | DEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1 | -108 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Book | KENN | EV | DEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +102 | -3.3% | -122 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -104 | -4.7% | -115 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -102 | -4.3% | -118 | -0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +104 | -2.9% | -122 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +100 | -3.8% | -120 | -0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -2.5% | -115 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -113 | -1.8% | -106 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 57.5 | -108 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57 | -114 | -3.1% | -106 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -2.5% | -115 | -2.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.8%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Delaware 54% to beat Kennesaw State (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Delaware the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kennesaw State a 46% chance of beating Delaware, against 54% for Delaware. Kennesaw State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Delaware (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kennesaw State (2-6 so far) project to finish 4.4–7.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | 6.1–5.9 | <1% | 0% |
| Kennesaw State | 4.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Delaware and Kennesaw State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Delaware have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Kennesaw State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).