Louisiana Tech
6-0
Troy
4-0
Win Probability
Louisiana Tech travels to Troy unbeaten and favored in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the visitors. Blake Baker is projected for 160 passing yards, while Troy's Tucker Kilcrease is expected to manage just 100—a gap that reflects the game's offensive balance. The decisive factor is Troy's ground game: if Jordan Lovett can exceed his projection of 45 rushing yards, the home side's chances improve sharply. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 66% of the time across 2,499 graded contests. For Troy to pull the upset, it would need to control the line of scrimmage and lean heavily on its run game to keep Louisiana Tech's passing attack off the field.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LT ML
LT -180
-1.4% EV
57.6% leads · push 7.6%
theScore Bet ↗
1H TROY ML
TROY +154
-2.0% EV
34.8% leads · push 7.6%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | TROY | EV | LT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +6 | -108 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +6 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.8% |
| Book | TROY | EV | LT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +180 | -1.7% | -218 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +180 | -1.7% | -215 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +180 | -1.7% | -220 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +177 | -2.2% | -213 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +180 | -1.7% | -215 | -2.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -108 | -4.7% | -112 | +0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -105 | -4.1% | -115 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 47.5 | -108 | -4.7% | -110 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech 66% to beat Troy (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Troy a 35% chance of beating Louisiana Tech, against 66% for Louisiana Tech. Troy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisiana Tech (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.7–3.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Troy (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 8.7–3.3 | 85% | 2% |
| Troy | 5.6–6.4 | 3% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Louisiana Tech and Troy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisiana Tech have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Troy have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Troy are 53-25 as favourite and 19-57 as underdog, and 41-31 at home (57% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LT | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 53-25 |
| As underdog | — | 19-57 |
| At home | — | 41-31 |
| On the road | — | 35-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →