NCAAF
Final · USF 17–20 ECU ·
South Florida
6-0
17
East Carolina
4-0
20
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ECU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -109 | +0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Book | ECU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -3.8% | +114 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -128 | -2.7% | +106 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -130 | -3.0% | +110 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -134 | -3.6% | +113 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -135 | -3.8% | +115 | +0.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -112 | -4.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -112 | -4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -114 | -1.0% | -105 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 38.5 | -115 | +1.7% | -105 | -6.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| ECU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
L. Kromenhoek pass to B. Rodgers for 26 yds, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK)
USF
7–0
N. Perez 44 yd FG GOOD
ECU
7–3
N. Gramatica 30 yd FG GOOD
USF
10–3
E. Williams pass to L. Sides for 15 yds, for a TD (N. Perez KICK)
ECU
10–10
E. Williams pass to L. Sides for 8 yds, for a TD (N. Perez KICK)
ECU
10–17
J. Collins Jr. run for 1 yd, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK)
USF
17–17
A. Conrad 55 yd FG GOOD
ECU
17–20
| USF | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kromenhoek | 17/21 | 179 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ECU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emory Williams | 19/27 | 175 | 6.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitch Griffis | 7/11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Where to Bet
goldWin probability: 46.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina 53% to beat South Florida (47%). Final score: South Florida 17, East Carolina 20.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina the more likely winner at 53%. The game finished South Florida 17, East Carolina 20.
AccuScore's simulation gives East Carolina a 53% chance of beating South Florida, against 47% for South Florida. It finished East Carolina 20, South Florida 17.
South Florida (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
East Carolina (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 7.9–4.1 | 1% | <1% |
| East Carolina | 6.3–5.7 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Florida and East Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Florida have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
East Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: South Florida 5, East Carolina 4. The last meeting, on Oct 1, 2022, finished East Carolina 48, South Florida 28.
South Florida are 47-19 as favourite and 13-74 as underdog, and 32-50 on the road (39% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
East Carolina are 49-18 as favourite and 20-67 as underdog, and 43-34 at home (56% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 47-19 | 49-18 |
| As underdog | 13-74 | 20-67 |
| At home | 33-46 | 43-34 |
| On the road | 32-50 | 32-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →